5.1. IDAs, Collapse Fragility Functions, P(C|Sa(T1)MCE), and CMR
The results from the structural analyses are summarized in
Figure 13, which shows the median Peak Story Drift Ratios (PSDRs) considering different intensity levels. As a reference, the three main intensity levels (i.e., MCE, DBE, and SLE) are explicitly indicated in the legends with the corresponding values of the S
a(T
1) level. As expected, the median PSDRs increased with an increasing return period (i.e., increasing hazard level). For comparison purposes, the response for a ~50,000-year return period is also presented. Although this is an extremely large return period, the corresponding S
a(T
1) values were close to the median S
a(T
1) collapse values (units of gravity, g) that are presented later.
For each archetype, the Sa(T1) values that triggered a collapse and the collapse mode (i.e., either simulated or non-simulated) were identified and recorded for each ground motion. The collapse modes were found to depend on the archetypes. For instance, more than 60% of collapses of archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB, Bld-07-z3-sB, and Bld-07-z2-sD were due to local collapse criteria. Concrete crushing and, at the same time, steel buckling at the wall boundary elements when the buildings were loaded in the positive transverse direction (i.e., boundary elements in compression) were mostly observed. On average, 40% of collapses occurred in the negative transverse direction (i.e., boundary elements in tension) due to the global collapse criteria (SRD ≥ 5%). On the other hand, 70% of the collapses of archetype Bld-07-z3-sD were due to the global collapse criteria (in either the negative or positive transverse direction).
Figure 14 shows the collapse assessment results. For brevity, the IDA curves present information about one of the EDPs (i.e., RDR) as an indicator of the global structural seismic response. In more detail,
Figure 14a–d show the IDA results for each building, plotted as the RDR values against the S
a(T
1) values. The figures also present the 50th collapse percentile (median), as well as the 16th and 84th collapse percentiles (equal to one logarithmic standard deviation below and above the mean when a lognormal distribution is assumed). Moreover,
Figure 14e–h shows the estimated lognormal collapse fragility curves and the values of the S
a(T
1) collapse intensity.
These figures also exhibit both the estimated median () and dispersion () values (obtained using the MLM) and the results of the K–S and Lilliefors goodness-of-fit tests, both at a 5% significance level. The fragility functions passed both tests, indicating a proper representation of the Sa(T1) collapse intensity data. In more detail, seismic zone 2 Bld-07-z2-sB had Sa(T1) collapse values that ranged from 1.40 g to 3.95 g, with = 2.21 g, whereas Bld-07-z2-sD had Sa(T1) collapse intensity values ranging from 1.75 g to 6.85 g, with a greater of 3.49 g. On the other hand, seismic zone 3 Bld-07-z3-sB exhibited Sa(T1) collapse values that ranged from 1.00 g to 4.00 g, with = 2.10 g, whereas Bld-07-z3-sD exhibited Sa(T1) collapse intensities ranging from 2.90 g to 9.70 g, with a significantly greater of 5.72 g. In particular, the results were consistent with the seismic design code strength requirement (i.e., = 2.21 g for Bld-07-z2-sB (Vbdes = 0.05 W) was smaller than = 5.72 g for Bld-07-z3-sD (Vbdes = 0.10 W)).
In terms of dispersion, the archetype buildings had quite similar values of
, which were less than 0.40. Dispersion values of 0.28, 0.40, 0.35, and 0.36 were estimated for archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB, Bld-07-z2-sD, Bld-07-z3-sB, and Bld-07-z3-sD, respectively. Although the dispersion of the S
a(T
1) collapse values seemed to be rather high, the estimated values of
were either equal to or smaller than those recommended by FEMA P-58 [
13].
The estimated values of
and
as well as the results of the goodness-of-fit tests, are presented in
Table 5. In terms of the effect of the seismic zone, the
value of archetype Bld-07-z2-sB (stiff soil, moderate seismic activity) was slightly higher than that of archetype Bld-07-z3-sB (high seismic activity, also stiff soil), whereas the
value of archetype Bld-07-z2-sD (moderate seismic activity, moderately stiff soil) was smaller than that of archetype Bld-07-z3-sD (high seismic activity, moderately stiff soil). In other words, there was no clear relationship between the level of seismic activity and
. The effect of the soil type was more relevant on the archetype buildings located in seismic zone 3 (
= 2.10 g for Bld-07-z3-sB and
= 5.72 g for Bld-07-z3-sD) than on those located in seismic zone 2 (
= 2.21 g for Bld-07-z2-sB and
= 3.49 g for Bld-07-z2-sD).
Based on the results shown in
Table 5 it can be stated that (i) the values of
for archetype buildings located on soil type D were greater than those for archetype buildings located on soil type B, and (ii) there was no clear relationship between the
values and the seismic zone. Additionally, the effect of the soil type seemed to be more relevant than that of the seismic zone. Higher values of
for archetype buildings located on soil type D could be the result of a greater dispersion of the CS spectral ordinates, as mentioned in
Section 4.2.
The collapse fragility curves of each archetype building (plotted as a function of S
a(T
1)) are presented in
Figure 15a and it can be observed that the fragility curves of archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB and Bld-07-z3-sB are quite similar to each other, whereas those of archetypes Bld-07-z2-sD and Bld-07-z3-sD are situated far to the right. At first glance, this observation could suggest that the latter archetype buildings have a superior seismic collapse performance, but it is important to note that for a specified S
a(T
1) value, the corresponding λ
Sa(T1) value may differ significantly for different archetype buildings depending on the fundamental period, seismic zone, and soil type. Thus, a direct comparison of the fragility functions expressed in terms of S
a(T
1) can be misleading [
38]. Consequently,
Figure 15b shows the collapse fragility curves but plotted as a function of the corresponding λ
Sa(T1) values, where vertical lines at different hazard levels (i.e., probabilities of exceedance equal to 2%, 10%, and 50% in 50 years, or, in other words, return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years, respectively) are also shown.
By looking at
Figure 15a,b it is clear why a direct comparison of the collapse fragility functions plotted as functions of S
a(T
1) was misleading. For instance, the S
a(T
1) collapse fragility curve of archetype Bld-07-z2-sB was located to the left of the remaining curves in
Figure 15a (which may have been misunderstood as being inferior performance), whereas the corresponding λ
Sa(T1) collapse fragility curve was located to the right of the other curves, which indicates a superior collapse performance (relative to that of the archetypes on soil type D). Although fragility functions plotted as a function of λ
Sa(T1) may not provide sufficient information to quantitatively rank the earthquake-induced collapse performance of different buildings (as opposed to the information provided by λ
c, for example), this analysis provides a useful tool to compare different buildings to each other.
Figure 15b shows that each archetype building had negligible collapse probability values at hazard levels of 10% and 50% in 50 years (i.e., SLE and DBE earthquakes, respectively). Likewise, at the MCE earthquake (i.e., hazard level of 2% in 50 years) archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB and Bld-07-z3-sD had negligible collapse probability values. Instead, archetypes Bld-07-z2-sD and Bld-07-z3-sB had small but non-negligible collapse probability values (2.8% and 1.6%, respectively).
Table 5 shows the collapse probability value of each archetype building at their respective MCE intensities, and it can be observed that each archetype building met the 10% conditional probability target indicated by ASCE 7-22 [
10]. The latter was consistent with the satisfactory collapse prevention performance exhibited by modern Chilean RC buildings in recent earthquakes [
3,
6,
7]. In terms of the effect of the soil type and seismic zone, the results shown in
Figure 15b do not show a clear pattern. Lastly, the CMR values are also shown in
Table 5 and it can be seen that these values ranged from 2.1 to 2.7 (average of 2.3) and were higher (i.e., lower collapse risk) than those indicated in FEMA P695 for RC structures, whose design seismic response coefficients and collapse uncertainties are similar to those of the archetype buildings assessed in this study [
16].
5.2. Values of λc and Pc(50)
The estimated values of λ
c and P
c(50) are presented in
Table 6 and it can be observed that these values ranged from 2.17 × 10
−5 to 7.24 × 10
−5 and from 0.11% to 0.36%, respectively. The estimated values of P
c(50) were small and consistent with the seismic response of modern Chilean RC buildings empirically observed in recent earthquakes. In addition, the target maximum probability of collapse of 1% in 50 years indicated by ASCE 7-22 [
10] was achieved by each archetype building and, therefore, post-2010 Chilean RC mid-rise dual wall-frame buildings are expected to reach the collapse prevention limit state (at least at the locations and soil types considered in this study).
There was no clear pattern in terms of the influence of the soil type and seismic zone on the P
c(50) values. For soil type B, the P
c(50) value for seismic zone 3 was higher than that for seismic zone 2. Specifically, the P
c(50) values for archetypes Bld-07-z3-sB and Bld-07-z2-sB were 0.31% and 0.11%, respectively. In contrast, for soil type D, the P
c(50) value for seismic zone 3 was smaller than that for seismic zone 2. Specifically, values of P
c(50) for archetypes Bld-07-z3-sD and Bld-07-z2-sD were 0.18% and 0.36%, respectively. Regarding the influence of the soil type, the P
c(50) values for archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB and Bld-07-z2-sD were 0.11% and 0.36%, respectively, whereas those for archetypes Bld-07-z3-sB and Bld-07-z3-sD P
c(50) were 0.31% and 0.18%, respectively. Although the effect of the seismic zone and soil type on the P
c(50) values may appear counter-intuitive (even chaotic), it is important to highlight that Chilean seismic design codes are mostly prescriptive and do not include explicit PBEE design targets. Given that normalized design base shears, V
des/W, for the archetype buildings on soil type D were higher than those for the archetype buildings on soil type B (see
Table 3), higher P
c(50) values for the soil type D archetype buildings seemed to indicate that the difference between the actual demand and the design demand was greater on soil type D than on soil type B. Since current Chilean design codes are prescriptive and lack PBEE design targets (such as uniform collapse risk on different soil types), the substantial differences observed in the P
c(50) values may be expected (which does not make them less unacceptable).
5.3. Deaggregation Values of λc
The deaggregation curves of λ
c based on the S
a(T
1) intensity values are shown in
Figure 16a, and it can be observed that the areas below the curves for archetypes Bld-07-z2-sD and Bld-07-z3-sB are significantly greater than those for archetypes Bld-07-z2-sB and Bld-07-z3-sD, which was expected because these areas represent the values of λ
c that were summarized in
Table 6. Moreover, the deaggregation curve of archetype Bld-07-z3-sB is located more to the left, which indicates that the contribution of small S
a(T
1) values to λ
c was greater for this archetype building than for the remaining buildings. Consequently, archetype Bld-07-z3-sB was more susceptible (in terms of collapse during its lifetime) to small/medium S
a(T
1) intensities. In contrast, the deaggregation curve of archetype Bld-07-z3-sD is located more to the right, which indicates that the contribution of high S
a(T
1) values to λ
c was greater for this archetype building than for the remaining buildings. Consequently, archetype Bld-07-z3-sD was more susceptible (in terms of collapse during its lifetime) to high S
a(T
1) intensities.
Figure 16a also shows three sets of lines that indicate the values of
, values of S
a(T
1) at 50% of λ
c, and values of S
a(T
1) at 75% of λ
c.
It is worth mentioning that the values of
were always higher than the S
a(T
1) intensity values at 50% of λ
c but were always smaller than the S
a(T
1) intensity values at 75% of λ
c. For instance, for archetype Bld-07-z2-sD,
= 3.49 g was 28% higher than the S
a(T
1) value at 50% of λ
c (= 2.73 g), whereas for archetype Bld-07-z3-sB,
= 2.10 g was 17% higher than the S
a(T
1) value at 50% of λ
c (= 1.80 g). Although the precise characterization of the collapse fragility functions is necessary for the entire range of the S
a(T
1) intensity values, these observations indicate that this characterization is needed more at S
a(T
1) intensities smaller than
because these S
a(T
1) values contribute the most to λ
c (and, as a result, also to P
c(50)), which is in agreement with previous studies [
22,
38].
As shown previously, a direct comparison of the collapse fragility functions for the different archetype buildings (with different soil types and fundamental periods) may be misleading, and this reflection can be extended to the assessment of the λ
c deaggregation curves for different archetype buildings. The deaggregation curves of λ
c as a function of the corresponding λ
Sa(T1) values are shown in
Figure 16b, where vertical lines indicate the previously defined λ
Sa(T1) hazard levels. At the SLE level, each archetype building presents small (almost negligible) values of deaggregated λ
c and this is in agreement with the observed seismic performance of Chilean RC dual wall-frame buildings in recent earthquakes. Regarding the DBE level, apart from archetype Bld-07-z2-sD, the remaining archetype buildings exhibited negligible values of deaggregated λc, whereas at the MCE level, only the archetype Bld-07-z2-sB showed negligible values of deaggregated λ
c. As seen in
Figure 16b, the deaggregation curves of archetypes Bld-07-z2-sD and Bld-07-z3-sB are located more to the left, which shows that the influence of high λ
Sa(T1) values on λ
c was greater for these archetype buildings than for the remaining ones, indicating that the former archetype buildings were more susceptible (in terms of collapse during their lifetime) to more frequent ground motions (small and medium intensities). It can also be observed that, again, the influence of the seismic zone and soil type on the deaggregated λ
c curves is unclear. For example, at λ
Sa(T1) = 10
−4, the area under the deaggregation curve is 42.1% of λ
c for archetype Bld-z2-sD but only 25.7% of λ
c for archetype Bld-z3-sD (see
Table 6). On the other hand, at λ
Sa(T1) = 10
−4, the area under the deaggregation curve is 5.4% of λ
c for archetype Bld-z2-sB but 32.6% of λ
c for archetype Bld-z3-sB (see
Table 6). Therefore, it cannot be concluded that archetype buildings located in a high seismicity zone are less susceptible to collapse during their lifetime (e.g., 50 years) to more recurrent ground motions than those in a moderate seismicity zone. As a summary,
Figure 17 shows a bar plot, where the λ
c and P
c(50) values are plotted for the four archetype buildings.