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Article

Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

by 1,2 and 3,4,*
1
Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, University of Hawai’i, 200 W. Kāwili Street, Hilo, HI 96720, USA
2
Department of Biology, Utah State University, 5305 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, USA
3
Tropical Conservation Biology & Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Hawai’i, Hilo, 200 W. Kāwili Street, Hilo, HI 96720, USA
4
Pollinating Insect—Biology, Management, and Systematics Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture—Agricultural Research Service, 1410 N. 800 E., Logan, UT 84341, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Koichi Goka
Insects 2021, 12(5), 443; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050443
Received: 9 April 2021 / Revised: 28 April 2021 / Accepted: 11 May 2021 / Published: 13 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Non-Apis Pollinators and Global Change)
Climate change exacerbates the threat of biological invasions by increasing climatically suitable regions for species to invade outside of their native range. Island ecosystems may be particularly sensitive to the synergistic effects of climate change and biological invasions. In Hawai’i there are 21 non-native bees that have the capacity to spread pathogens and compete for resources with native bees. We performed an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) for eight non-native bee species (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in Hawai’i to predict climatically suitable niches across current and future climate scenarios. We found a significant difference in habitat suitability between SDMs that were constructed with specimen records from their native and non-native (Hawai’i) range. Although SDMs predict expansion of suitable habitat into higher elevations under 2070 climate scenarios, species-rich areas are predicted to stay below 500 m elevation. Our models can inform decisions on the management of non-native bees in Hawai’i by assessing risk of invasion into new areas around the archipelago.
Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species. View Full-Text
Keywords: invasive; climate change; species distribution models; oceanic island; Hylaeus invasive; climate change; species distribution models; oceanic island; Hylaeus
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MDPI and ACS Style

Tabor, J.A.; Koch, J.B. Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i. Insects 2021, 12, 443. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050443

AMA Style

Tabor JA, Koch JB. Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i. Insects. 2021; 12(5):443. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050443

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tabor, Jesse A., and Jonathan B. Koch. 2021. "Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i" Insects 12, no. 5: 443. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050443

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