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17 January 2014

Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

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1
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista 164 40, Sweden
2
Risk and Crisis Research Center, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall 851 70, Sweden
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This article belongs to the Special Issue Axioms of Decision Support System

Abstract

Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

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