Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Fractional-Order COVID-19 Model
3. Main Results
3.1. Parameter Estimation
3.2. Sensitivity Analysis
3.3. Fractional Optimal Control of the Model
3.4. Numerical Results and Cost-Effectiveness of the Fractional Optimal Control Problem
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Name | Description | Value |
---|---|---|
human-to-human transmission coefficient | 2.55 | |
l | transmissibility of hospitalized patients | 1.56 |
transmission coefficient of super-spreaders | 7.65 | |
rate at which an individual leaves the exposed | 0.25 | |
class to become infectious | ||
proportion of progression from class E | 0.58 | |
to symptomatic infectious class I | ||
rate at which exposed ind. become super-spreaders | 0.001 | |
rate at which symptomatic and super-spreaders | 0.94 | |
become hospitalized | ||
recovery rate without being hospitalized | 0.27 | |
recovery rate of hospitalized patients | 0.5 | |
disease induced death rate due to infected ind. | 1/23 | |
disease induced death rate due to super-spreader ind. | 1/23 | |
disease induced death rate due to hospitalized ind. | 1/23 |
Derivative Order | s | Absolute Error | Relative Error (%) |
---|---|---|---|
1.0 | 21.08 | 8595 | 14.13 |
0.99 | 19.87 | 8135 | 13.37 |
A | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
0.99 | 1870.08 | 1116.43 | 0.596998 | 0.79967 |
1.0 | 1865.95 | 1114.53 | 0.597296 | 0.79791 |
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Rosa, S.; Torres, D.F.M. Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal. Axioms 2022, 11, 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11040170
Rosa S, Torres DFM. Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal. Axioms. 2022; 11(4):170. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11040170
Chicago/Turabian StyleRosa, Silvério, and Delfim F. M. Torres. 2022. "Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal" Axioms 11, no. 4: 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11040170
APA StyleRosa, S., & Torres, D. F. M. (2022). Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal. Axioms, 11(4), 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11040170