Pandemic Boosts Prospects for Recovery of Rural Tourism in Serbia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review and Hypotheses Development
2.1. A Theoretical Approach to the Relationship between the Pandemic and the Rural Environment
2.2. The Quality of Service in Rural Households as a Booster for the Recovery of Tourism
3. Methodology
3.1. Choice of Methodological Approach and Measurements
3.2. Sample and Data Collection
3.3. Data Analysis
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Results of IPA Analysis
4.2. Results of Classification of Dimensions and Positive Prediction Based on Cutoff Scores
4.3. ARIMA Model Results
5. Conclusion with Limitations and Future Implications
5.1. Theoretical Implications
5.2. Practical Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Gender | Frequency of Traveling | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Female | 40.80% | I travel abroad several times a year | 37.11% | |||
I travel abroad once a year | 21.03% | |||||
Male | 59.92% | I have traveled abroad several times in my life | 41.86% | |||
Education | Earning | |||||
High school | 39% | Low (≤400 *) | 1.22% | |||
Faculty | 40.80% | Average (400–700 *) | 34.04% | |||
MSc, PhD | 19.30% | High (>700 *) | 64.74% | |||
Age | Country of Residence | |||||
18–35 | 28.09% | North Macedonia | 2.11% | Austria | 7.30% | |
Germany | 2.01% | Romania | 4.80% | |||
36–60 | 33.20% | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 31.20% | Montenegro | 12% | |
Hungary | 3.90% | |||||
>61 | 38.71% | Croatia | 11.70% | Bulgaria | 15.18% | |
Slovenia | 6.70% | Australia | 3.10% |
Indicators | Performance (mp*) | * Rp | Importance (mi*) | * Ri | Gap (mi-mp) | t-Value | * p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F1-q1f1 | 3.97 | 17 | 2.00 | 23 | −1.97 | 25.843 | 0.000 |
F1-q2f1 | 4.33 | 6 | 3.01 | 16 | −1.32 | 18.018 | 0.000 |
F1-q3f1 | 5.49 | 1 | 2.25 | 20 | −3.24 | 42.523 | 0.000 |
F1-q4f1 | 4.65 | 4 | 3.22 | 12 | −1.43 | 15.577 | 0.000 |
F1-q5f1 | 4.99 | 3 | 2.92 | 18 | −2.07 | 21.010 | 0.000 |
F1-q6f1 | 5.42 | 2 | 3.91 | 3 | −1.51 | 20.268 | 0.000 |
F1-q7f1 | 4.22 | 10 | 3.32 | 11 | −0.9 | 8.208 | 0.000 |
F1-q8f1 | 4.14 | 12 | 2.55 | 21 | −1.59 | 17.411 | 0.000 |
F1-q9f1 | 4.03 | 15 | 2.15 | 22 | −1.88 | 19.420 | 0.000 |
F1-q10f1 | 4.26 | 8 | 3.75 | 4 | −0.51 | 4.678 | 0.000 |
F1-q11f1 | 3.96 | 18 | 3.94 | 1 | −0.02 | 1.206 | 0.837 |
F1-q12f1 | 3.93 | 19 | 3.66 | 5 | −0.3 | 2.523 | 0.012 |
F1-q13f1 | 3.82 | 20 | 3.13 | 14 | −0.69 | 6.901 | 0.000 |
F1-q14f1 | 4.19 | 11 | 3.25 | 13 | −0.94 | 9.059 | 0.000 |
F2-q1f2 | 4.51 | 5 | 3.93 | 2 | −0.58 | 5.653 | 0.000 |
F2-q2f2 | 4.12 | 13 | 3.09 | 15 | −1.03 | 9.615 | 0.000 |
F2-q3f2 | 4.03 | 14 | 3.50 | 9 | −0.53 | 5.154 | 0.000 |
F3-q1f3 | 4.31 | 7 | 3.56 | 8 | −0.75 | 6.854 | 0.000 |
F3-q2f3 | 3.99 | 16 | 3.40 | 10 | −0.59 | 6.252 | 0.000 |
F3-q3f3 | 4.23 | 9 | 3.58 | 7 | −0.65 | 5.951 | 0.000 |
F4-q1f4 | 2.82 | 21 | 2.77 | 19 | −0.05 | 4.484 | 0.628 |
F4-q2f4 | 2.68 | 23 | 3.62 | 6 | 0.94 | −9.483 | 0.000 |
F4-q3f4 | 2.75 | 22 | 2.98 | 17 | 0.23 | −2.049 | 0.041 |
H1a: Foreign tourists positively assessed the quality of rural services ✔ | |||||||
H1b: There was a low degree of gap between expected and perceived values of service quality ½ ✔ |
Factors | AVE * | COMP * | Performance (mp*) | Importance (mi*) | Gap (mi-mp) | t-Value * | p-Value * | r * |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F1-Functional elements | 0.659 | 0.964 | 4.39 | 3.05 | −1.34 | 33.227 | 0.000 | 0.146 |
F2-Satisfaction elements | 0.640 | 0.842 | 4.22 | 3.50 | −0.72 | 8.871 | 0.000 | 0.184 |
F3-Emotional elements | 0.642 | 0.843 | 4.18 | 3.51 | −0.67 | 8.729 | 0.000 | 0.219 |
F4-Price value | 0.685 | 0.867 | 2.75 | 3.12 | 0.37 | −5.992 | 0.000 | −0.009 |
Area Under the Curve | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Test Result Variable(s) | Area | Std. Error | Asymptotic Sig. | Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval | ||
Lower Bound | Upper Bound | |||||
F1-Functional elements | 0.590 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.546 | 0.634 | H2a ✔ |
F2-Satisfaction elements | 0.570 | 0.022 | 0.002 | 0.526 | 0.614 | H2b ✔ |
F3-Emotional value | 0.574 | 0.023 | 0.001 | 0.530 | 0.618 | H2c ✔ |
F4-Price value | 0.480 | 0.023 | 0.384 | 0.435 | 0.525 | H2d ✖ |
Model Fit Statistics | Ljung–Box Q (18) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | RMSE | MAPE | BIC | Statistics | df | Sig. | Number of Outliers |
0.932 | 5925.398 | 16.303 | 18.414 | 26.633 | 17 | 0.10 | 0 |
Model | 2023 | 2024 | Confirmation | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Overnights-Model_1 | Forecast | 53,525 | 61,626 | H3 ✔ |
UCL | 69,144 | 92,940 | ||
LCL | 37,907 | 30,311 |
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Gajić, T.; Đoković, F.; Blešić, I.; Petrović, M.D.; Radovanović, M.M.; Vukolić, D.; Mandarić, M.; Dašić, G.; Syromiatnikova, J.A.; Mićović, A. Pandemic Boosts Prospects for Recovery of Rural Tourism in Serbia. Land 2023, 12, 624. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12030624
Gajić T, Đoković F, Blešić I, Petrović MD, Radovanović MM, Vukolić D, Mandarić M, Dašić G, Syromiatnikova JA, Mićović A. Pandemic Boosts Prospects for Recovery of Rural Tourism in Serbia. Land. 2023; 12(3):624. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12030624
Chicago/Turabian StyleGajić, Tamara, Filip Đoković, Ivana Blešić, Marko D. Petrović, Milan M. Radovanović, Dragan Vukolić, Marija Mandarić, Goran Dašić, Julia A. Syromiatnikova, and Andrej Mićović. 2023. "Pandemic Boosts Prospects for Recovery of Rural Tourism in Serbia" Land 12, no. 3: 624. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12030624