Decreased Streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China: Climate Change or Human‐Induced?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data
3. Methodology
3.1. Elasticity of Factors Influencing Streamflow
3.2. SIMHYD-Based Modelling
3.3. Detection of the Change Points
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Abrupt Changes in the Factors Influencing Streamflow
4.2. Elasticity of the Factors Influencing Streamflow
4.3. Fractional Contribution of Driving Factors
4.4. Climate- and Human-Induced Impacts and the Implications of Underlying Parameters
4.5. Comparison of Results Obtained for the Budyko Framework and SIMHYD Model
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- Compared to the period 1960–1979, a mean decrease of 21% was observed in streamflow in the Yellow River basin for the period 1980–2000, and this decrease was most strongly evident in the lower Yellow River basin. A further decrease of 19% in the streamflow was observed for the period 2001–2014.
- (2)
- The impacts of the various factors influencing streamflow are different spatially across the Yellow River basin. The highest sensitivity of streamflow changes to the factors considered in this study was observed in the Loess Plateau. Precipitation and relative humidity both have positive impacts, increasing streamflow, but maximum/minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and the underlying parameter all have negative impacts on streamflow. Streamflow change is more sensitive to precipitation than the underlying parameter and other evaporation-related factors.
- (3)
- Human activities have a greater effect on hydrological processes than other influential factors. Relative to the benchmark period of 1960–1979, the fractional contribution of human activities to streamflow changes during 1980–2000 was 63.5% and increased further during the period 2001–2014. The amplifying effect of human impacts on changing streamflow due to the rapid intensification of human activities clearly has the potential to add considerable uncertainty for the management of water resources, posing a serious challenge to basin-scale water resource management in the Yellow River basin as well as in similar major river basins across the globe.
- (4)
- Cropland, forest land, water area, and the underlying parameter, n, all have significant negative impacts on streamflow. However, the most significant impacts were detected for GDP and population density. The use of these relatively simple terms to represent human activities inevitably fails to convey sufficient information regarding human-induced impacts on streamflow in the world’s great river systems. Additional components of human activities such as water withdrawal rates need to be considered and appropriate datasets need to be developed. How best to take into account the full range of human activities that may affect our waterways and their related impacts on hydrological processes remains a vitally important scientific issue that will continue to be addressed in the ongoing research being conducted in this area.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Location | River | Hydrological Stations | No. | Drainage Area (104 km2) | Data Period | Annual P (mm) | Annual E0 (mm) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Upper basin | Main stream | Jimai | 1 | 4.86 | 1960–2000 | 434 | 849 |
Maqu | 2 | 8.67 | 1960–2000 | 530 | 828 | ||
Tangnaihai | 3 | 11.86 | 1960–2014 | 519 | 830 | ||
Guide | 4 | 13.62 | 1960–2000 | 498 | 841 | ||
Xunhua | 5 | 14.67 | 1960–2000 | 492 | 844 | ||
Lanzhou | 6 | 20.65 | 1960–2014 | 468 | 854 | ||
Shizuishan | 7 | 27.67 | 1960–2000 | 425 | 916 | ||
Zuli River | Jinyuan | 8 | 1.07 | 1960–2000 | 397 | 921 | |
Qinshui River | Quanyanshan | 9 | 1.43 | 1960–2000 | 358 | 1125 | |
Kundulun River | Taerwan | 10 | 0.02 | 1960–2000 | 424 | 919 | |
Zhao River | Minxian | 11 | 1.49 | 1960–2000 | 563 | 796 | |
Hongqi | 12 | 2.49 | 1960–2014 | 539 | 804 | ||
Daxia River | Shuangcheng | 13 | 0.40 | 1960–2000 | 489 | 831 | |
Zheqiao | 14 | 0.62 | 1960–2000 | 501 | 809 | ||
Datong River | Minhe | 15 | 1.51 | 1960–2000 | 374 | 896 | |
Middle basin | Main stream | Longmen | 16 | 52.26 | 1960–2014 | 390 | 1031 |
Sanmenxia | 17 | 65.12 | 1960–2000 | 428 | 1024 | ||
Xiaolangdi | 18 | 66.22 | 1960–2000 | 429 | 1024 | ||
Kuye River | Wenjiachuan | 19 | 0.86 | 1960–2014 | 402 | 1146 | |
Fen River | Hekouzhen | 20 | 9.11 | 1960–2000 | 455 | 1057 | |
Hejin | 30 | 3.94 | 1960–2000 | 487 | 1055 | ||
Qingjian River | Yanchuan | 21 | 0.36 | 1960–2000 | 485 | 1059 | |
Dahei River | Qixiaying | 22 | 0.27 | 1960–2000 | 359 | 1063 | |
Wei River | Beidao | 23 | 2.75 | 1960–2000 | 506 | 863 | |
Linjiacun | 24 | 3.54 | 1960–2000 | 530 | 868 | ||
Xianyiang | 25 | 4.80 | 1960–2000 | 565 | 886 | ||
Jin River | Yuluopin | 26 | 1.90 | 1960–2000 | 468 | 1032 | |
Wuding River | Baijiachuan | 27 | 2.97 | 1960–2014 | 370 | 1187 | |
Beiluo River | Jiaokouhe | 28 | 2.04 | 1960–2000 | 515 | 1022 | |
Zhuangtou | 29 | 2.57 | 1960–2014 | 526 | 1043 | ||
Lower basin | Main Steam | Huayuankou | 31 | 70.21 | 1960–2014 | 440 | 1027 |
Lijin | 32 | 72.25 | 1960–2014 | 448 | 1029 | ||
Yiluo River | Lingkou | 33 | 0.23 | 1960–2000 | 696 | 1021 | |
Yi River | Longmenzhen | 34 | 0.53 | 1960–2000 | 752 | 1026 | |
Qin River | Heishiguan | 35 | 0.93 | 1960–2000 | 564 | 1002 | |
Dawen River | Laiwu | 36 | 0.03 | 1960–2000 | 700 | 1136 | |
Daicunba | 37 | 0.84 | 1960–2000 | 813 | 1085 |
Stations | SIMHDY-Based Results | Budyko-Based Results | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Streamflow (mm) | Calibration R2 | Validation R2 | Climate-Induced Contribution (%) | Climate-Induced Contribution (%) | Human-Induced Contribution (%) | |
Jimai | −0.47 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 52.4 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
Tangnaihai | −1.86 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 39.2 | 37.3 | 62.7 |
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Li, B.; Li, C.; Liu, J.; Zhang, Q.; Duan, L. Decreased Streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China: Climate Change or Human‐Induced? Water 2017, 9, 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020116
Li B, Li C, Liu J, Zhang Q, Duan L. Decreased Streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China: Climate Change or Human‐Induced? Water. 2017; 9(2):116. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020116
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Bin, Changyou Li, Jianyu Liu, Qiang Zhang, and Limin Duan. 2017. "Decreased Streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China: Climate Change or Human‐Induced?" Water 9, no. 2: 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020116
APA StyleLi, B., Li, C., Liu, J., Zhang, Q., & Duan, L. (2017). Decreased Streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China: Climate Change or Human‐Induced? Water, 9(2), 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020116