Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat

Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e L’analisi Dell’economia Agraria, Unità di Ricerca per i Sistemi Colturali degli Ambienti Caldo-Aridi, I-70125 Bari, Italy

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Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, DISPAA, University of Florence, I-50144 Firenze, Italy

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Institute of Biometeorology of the National Research Council (CNR-IBIMET), I-50145 Firenze, Italy

¹⁰

Climate Change Cluster, University of Technology, Sydney 2007, Australia

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Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, A-1180 Vienna, Austria

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Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, D-38116 Braunschweig, Germany

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Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling, Georg-August-University, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany

¹⁴

Earth Science Institute of Slovak Academy of Science, SK-840 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

¹⁵

AGES—Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety Ltd., A-1220 Vienna, Austria

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Arjen Y. Hoekstra

Water 2016, 8(12), 571; https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120571

Received: 18 September 2016 / Revised: 23 November 2016 / Accepted: 28 November 2016 / Published: 5 December 2016

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Footprint Assessment)

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Abstract

Crop productivity and water consumption form the basis to calculate the water footprint (WF) of a specific crop. Under current climate conditions, calculated evapotranspiration is related to observed crop yields to calculate WF. The assessment of WF under future climate conditions requires the simulation of crop yields adding further uncertainty. To assess the uncertainty of model based assessments of WF, an ensemble of crop models was applied to data from five field experiments across Europe. Only limited data were provided for a rough calibration, which corresponds to a typical situation for regional assessments, where data availability is limited. Up to eight models were applied for wheat. The coefficient of variation for the simulated actual evapotranspiration between models was in the range of 13%–19%, which was higher than the inter-annual variability. Simulated yields showed a higher variability between models in the range of 17%–39%. Models responded differently to elevated CO₂ in a FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) experiment, especially regarding the reduction of water consumption. The variability of calculated WF between models was in the range of 15%–49%. Yield predictions contributed more to this variance than the estimation of water consumption. Transpiration accounts on average for 51%–68% of the total actual evapotranspiration. View Full-Text

Keywords: water footprint; uncertainty; model ensemble; wheat; crop yield

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kersebaum, K.C.; Kroes, J.; Gobin, A.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Dalla Marta, A.; Luo, Q.; Eitzinger, J.; Mirschel, W.; Weigel, H.-J.; Manderscheid, R.; Hoffmann, M.; Nejedlik, P.; Iqbal, M.A.; Hösch, J. Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat. Water 2016, 8, 571. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120571

AMA Style

Kersebaum KC, Kroes J, Gobin A, Takáč J, Hlavinka P, Trnka M, Ventrella D, Giglio L, Ferrise R, Moriondo M, Dalla Marta A, Luo Q, Eitzinger J, Mirschel W, Weigel H-J, Manderscheid R, Hoffmann M, Nejedlik P, Iqbal MA, Hösch J. Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat. Water. 2016; 8(12):571. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120571

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kersebaum, Kurt C., Joop Kroes, Anne Gobin, Jozef Takáč, Petr Hlavinka, Miroslav Trnka, Domenico Ventrella, Luisa Giglio, Roberto Ferrise, Marco Moriondo, Anna Dalla Marta, Qunying Luo, Josef Eitzinger, Wilfried Mirschel, Hans-Joachim Weigel, Remy Manderscheid, Munir Hoffmann, Pavol Nejedlik, Muhammad A. Iqbal, and Johannes Hösch. 2016. "Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat" Water 8, no. 12: 571. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8120571

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Assessing Uncertainties of Water Footprints Using an Ensemble of Crop Growth Models on Winter Wheat

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