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Open AccessArticle

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

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College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
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National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety & Hydro-Science, Nanjing 210024, China
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Hohai University Press, Nanjing 210024, China
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State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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Research Institute of Management Science, Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Athanasios Loukas
Water 2016, 8(11), 486; https://doi.org/10.3390/w8110486
Received: 4 September 2016 / Revised: 22 October 2016 / Accepted: 25 October 2016 / Published: 27 October 2016
Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP) to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF) form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL) and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles) of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2%) were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band) for the reservoir flood routing calculation. View Full-Text
Keywords: reservoir flood routing calculation; inflow forecast uncertainty; Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor; Xinanjiang model; risk rate; Huaihe River reservoir flood routing calculation; inflow forecast uncertainty; Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor; Xinanjiang model; risk rate; Huaihe River
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MDPI and ACS Style

Li, B.; Liang, Z.; Zhang, J.; Chen, X.; Jiang, X.; Wang, J.; Hu, Y. Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty. Water 2016, 8, 486.

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