Assessing the Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Quantity and Quality: A Case Study of the Western Varamin Plain, Iran
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. General Framework of Modeling
2.3. Models Used in Quantitative and Qualitative Simulation
2.4. Primary Information of Groundwater Flow Modeling
2.5. Primary Information of Transport Modeling
2.6. Climate Change Scenarios and Downscaling
2.7. Determination of ET0, ETC, and IWN
3. Result
3.1. MODFLOW Calibration and Validation Results
3.2. MT3D Calibration and Validation Results
3.2.1. TDS
3.2.2. Chloride
3.2.3. Sodium Ion
3.3. SDSM Calibration, Validation, and Prediction Results
3.4. Climate Change Effect on ET0, ETC, and IWN
3.5. Predicting the Aquifer’s Status in the Future
3.5.1. Scenario 0: Continuing the Existing Conditions
3.5.2. Scenario 1: Increase in the Extraction from Pumping Wells (25%)
3.5.3. Scenario 2: Climate Changes
3.5.4. Scenario 3: Increase in the Incoming Effluent (TDS) to the Shoor River (50%)
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Station | Type | Altitude (m) | Latitude (Degrees) | Longitude (Degrees) |
---|---|---|---|---|
RGS-1 | Rain gauge | 840 | 35° 15′ 54″ | 51° 34′ 6″ |
RGS-2 | Rain gauge | 1000 | 35° 19′ 45″ | 51° 40′ 1″ |
RGS-3 | Rain gauge | 950 | 35° 24′ 7″ | 51° 35′ 51″ |
RGS-4 | Rain gauge | 1150 | 35° 30′ 29″ | 51° 47′ 2″ |
Sys-1 | Synoptic | 861 | 35° 12′ 37″ | 51° 40′ 4″ |
Sys-2 | Synoptic | 1299 | 35° 35′ 53″ | 51° 46′ 48″ |
Model | Quantitative Model | Qualitative Model |
---|---|---|
Steady-state | Hydraulic conductivity, recharge | - |
Transient | Recharge, specific yield | longitudinal dispersion coefficient, pollutant concentration sources |
Models | ME (m) | MAE (m) | RMSE (m) | MRE (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration (steady state) | −0.51 | 1.44 | 1.99 | 1.48 |
Calibration (transient) | 1.98 | 2.6 | 3.25 | 2.34 |
Validation | 2.14 | 2.74 | 3.42 | 2.52 |
Calibrated Parameter | 0% | +10% | +20% | +30% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Recharge rate | 3.25 | 3.252 | 3.254 | 3.256 |
Specific yield | 3.25 | 3.256 | 3.261 | 3.266 |
Calibrated Parameter | 0% | −10% | −20% | −30% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hydraulic conductivity | 3.25 | 3.252 | 3.254 | 3.256 |
Models | ME (mg/L) | MAE (mg/L) | RMSE (mg/L) | MRE (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
TDS—calibration | 3.5 | 277.97 | 432.72 | 7.78 |
—calibration | −0.49 | 3.4 | 5.77 | 9.4 |
—calibration | 0.23 | 2.58 | 4.16 | 9.27 |
TDS—validation | 23.51 | 273.46 | 416.49 | 9.4 |
—validation | −0.58 | 3.51 | 5.87 | 10.09 |
—validation | 0.74 | 2.83 | 4.33 | 8.7 |
Station | Selected Predictors |
---|---|
RGS-1 | Zonal velocity component near the surface (p_u) |
Meridional velocity component at 500 hPa (p5_v) | |
500 hPa geopotential height (p500) | |
Divergence at 500 hPa (p5zh) | |
Total precipitation (prec) | |
Near surface specific humidity (shum) | |
Near surface air temperature (temp) | |
RGS-2 | Vorticity at 500 hPa (p5_z) |
500 hPa geopotential height (p500) | |
Vorticity at 850 hPa (p8_z) | |
850 hPa geopotential height (p850) | |
Total precipitation (prec) | |
Near surface specific humidity (shum) | |
RGS-3 | Vorticity at 500 hPa (p5_z) |
500 hPa geopotential height (p500) | |
Vorticity at 850 hPa (p8_z) | |
850 hPa geopotential height (p850) | |
Total precipitation (prec) | |
Near surface specific humidity (shum) | |
RGS-4 | Meridional velocity component at 500 hPa (p5_v) |
500 hPa geopotential height (p500) | |
Vorticity at 850 hPa (p8_z) | |
850 hPa geopotential height (p850) | |
Total precipitation (prec) | |
Near surface specific humidity (shum) | |
Near surface air temperature (temp) |
Station | Selected Predictors |
---|---|
SyS-1 | 500 hPa geopotential height (p500) |
Near surface air temperature (temp) | |
SyS-2 | 500 hPa geopotential height (p500) |
Near surface air temperature (temp) |
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Asadi, R.; Zamaniannejatzadeh, M.; Eilbeigy, M. Assessing the Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Quantity and Quality: A Case Study of the Western Varamin Plain, Iran. Water 2023, 15, 3196. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183196
Asadi R, Zamaniannejatzadeh M, Eilbeigy M. Assessing the Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Quantity and Quality: A Case Study of the Western Varamin Plain, Iran. Water. 2023; 15(18):3196. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183196
Chicago/Turabian StyleAsadi, Roza, Mehraneh Zamaniannejatzadeh, and Mehdi Eilbeigy. 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Quantity and Quality: A Case Study of the Western Varamin Plain, Iran" Water 15, no. 18: 3196. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183196