# Risk Assessment of Dike Based on Risk Chain Model and Fuzzy Influence Diagram

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Background

## 2. The Risk Chain Model and the Fuzzy Influence Diagram

#### 2.1. The Risk Chain Model

#### 2.2. Fuzzy Set and Membership Function

#### 2.2.1. The Definition of Fuzzy Set and Membership

#### 2.2.2. The Operations on Fuzzy Sets

#### 2.3. The Process of the Fuzzy Influence Diagram

#### 2.3.1. The Calculation of Independent Node Frequency Matrix

#### 2.3.2. The Calculation of the Frequency Matrix of Dependent Nodes

#### 2.3.3. Result Analysis

## 3. The Evaluation Process of the Fuzzy Influence Diagram

#### 3.1. The Construction of the Frequency Fuzzy Set

**f**of the dike risk node can be expressed as follows:

#### 3.2. The Construction of the State Fuzzy Set

#### 3.3. Risk Assessment of One Dike Case

## 4. Summary and Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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Probability Range | Descriptive Term |
---|---|

<1% | Extremely unlikely |

1~10% | Very unlikely |

10~33% | Unlikely |

33~66% | Medium likelihood |

66~90% | Likely |

90~99% | Very likely |

>99% | Virtually certain |

Nodes | The Potential Risk State | The Frequency |
---|---|---|

Flooding | big | low |

middle | medium | |

small | high | |

Illegal operation | big | low |

middle | medium | |

small | high | |

Low skills | big | low |

middle | medium | |

small | high | |

Reduced cohesion | big | low |

middle | high | |

small | medium | |

Increase of water content | big | medium |

middle | low | |

small | high | |

Void ratio change | big | low |

middle | medium | |

small | high | |

Friction angle change | big | low |

middle | high | |

small | medium | |

…… | …… | …… |

Relationship between Different Nodes | Relationship Description | |
---|---|---|

The Degree of Change in Disadvantage for the Risk Nodes | The Results Corresponding to the Degree of Change of the Risk Nodes | |

Flooding → higher water level | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Illegal operation → reduced drainage capacity | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Low skills → reduced drainage capacity | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Reduced cohesion → dike body damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Water content → dike body damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Reduced cohesion → dike foundation damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

water content → dike foundation damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Void ratio → dike body damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Friction angel → dike foundation damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Void ratio → dike foundation damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Friction angle → dike foundation damage | big, middle, and small, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Higher water level → overtopping | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Reduced drainage → overtopping | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Damage of dike body → seepage | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Damage of dike foundation → seepage | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Damage of dike body → scouring | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Damage of dike foundation → scouring | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Overtopping → dike failure | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Seepage → dike failure | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

Scouring → dike failure | Increase max, medium, min, respectively | Increase max, increase medium, increase min, respectively |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Wang, X.; Xia, X.; Teng, R.; Gu, X.; Zhang, Q. Risk Assessment of Dike Based on Risk Chain Model and Fuzzy Influence Diagram. *Water* **2023**, *15*, 108.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010108

**AMA Style**

Wang X, Xia X, Teng R, Gu X, Zhang Q. Risk Assessment of Dike Based on Risk Chain Model and Fuzzy Influence Diagram. *Water*. 2023; 15(1):108.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010108

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Wang, Xiaobing, Xiaozhou Xia, Renjie Teng, Xin Gu, and Qing Zhang. 2023. "Risk Assessment of Dike Based on Risk Chain Model and Fuzzy Influence Diagram" *Water* 15, no. 1: 108.
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010108