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Article

Analysis and Forecasting of Wetness-Dryness Encountering of a Multi-Water System Based on a Vine Copula Function-Bayesian Network

1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, No.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China
2
National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, No.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Pankaj Kumar
Water 2022, 14(11), 1701; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111701
Received: 13 April 2022 / Revised: 17 May 2022 / Accepted: 24 May 2022 / Published: 25 May 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
The analysis and forecasting of wetness-dryness encountering is the basis of joint operation of a multi-water system, which is important for water management of intake areas of water transfer projects. On the basis of a vine copula function-Bayesian network, this study developed an analysis and forecasting of a wetness-dryness encountering model. The model consists of two modules: firstly, the joint distribution among multi-inflows is established based on the vine copula function, and the obtained historical laws of wetness-dryness encountering; then, a Bayesian network is established in order to forecast wetness-dryness encountering in the future, using the forecasting information of some water systems. The model was applied to the water receiving areas inside Jiangsu Province of the South-to-North Water Transfer East Route Project in China. The results revealed the following: (1) Compared with conventional copulas, the probability values of wetness-dryness encountering obtained by the vine copula function were closer to the observed values. (2) The wetness-dryness encountering in 2017–2019 was forecasted, and the results were consistent with reality. These results demonstrate that the proposed model improves the accuracy of the obtained historical laws of wetness-dryness encountering, and that it can forecast wetness-dryness encountering in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: water resources operation; wetness-dryness encountering; joint distribution of multi-inflow; South-to-North Water Transfer East Route Project water resources operation; wetness-dryness encountering; joint distribution of multi-inflow; South-to-North Water Transfer East Route Project
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, S.; Zhong, P.-A.; Zhu, F.; Xu, C.; Wang, Y.; Liu, W. Analysis and Forecasting of Wetness-Dryness Encountering of a Multi-Water System Based on a Vine Copula Function-Bayesian Network. Water 2022, 14, 1701. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111701

AMA Style

Wang S, Zhong P-A, Zhu F, Xu C, Wang Y, Liu W. Analysis and Forecasting of Wetness-Dryness Encountering of a Multi-Water System Based on a Vine Copula Function-Bayesian Network. Water. 2022; 14(11):1701. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111701

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Sen, Ping-An Zhong, Feilin Zhu, Chengjing Xu, Yiwen Wang, and Wenjie Liu. 2022. "Analysis and Forecasting of Wetness-Dryness Encountering of a Multi-Water System Based on a Vine Copula Function-Bayesian Network" Water 14, no. 11: 1701. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111701

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