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Article

Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China

by 1,2,3, 2,3,*, 2,3, 2,3,4, 2,3, 2 and 2
1
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2
China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
3
Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China
4
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Renato Morbidelli
Water 2021, 13(8), 1053; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081053
Received: 21 December 2020 / Revised: 9 April 2021 / Accepted: 9 April 2021 / Published: 12 April 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Modeling in Water Cycle Processes)
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter change analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, and then simulates the hydrological response of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results show that the five-GCM ensemble improves the simulation accuracy compared to a single model. The climate over the UMHRB likely becomes warmer. The general trend of future precipitation is projected to increase, and the increased rates are higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. Changes in annual evapotranspiration are basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal evapotranspiration shows different changes (0–18%). The average annual runoff will increase in a wavelike manner, and the change patterns of runoff follow that of seasonal precipitation. Changes in soil moisture are not obvious, and the annual soil moisture increases slightly. In the intrayear process, soil moisture decreases slightly in autumn. The research results will enhance a more realistic understanding of the future hydrological response of the UMHRB and assist decision-makers in developing watershed flood risk-management measures and water and soil conservation plans. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; socioeconomic pathway scenarios; hydrological response; Huaihe River Basin; variable infiltration capacity model climate change; socioeconomic pathway scenarios; hydrological response; Huaihe River Basin; variable infiltration capacity model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Yao, Y.; Qu, W.; Lu, J.; Cheng, H.; Pang, Z.; Lei, T.; Tan, Y. Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Water 2021, 13, 1053. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081053

AMA Style

Yao Y, Qu W, Lu J, Cheng H, Pang Z, Lei T, Tan Y. Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Water. 2021; 13(8):1053. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081053

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yao, Yuan; Qu, Wei; Lu, Jingxuan; Cheng, Hui; Pang, Zhiguo; Lei, Tianjie; Tan, Yanan. 2021. "Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China" Water 13, no. 8: 1053. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081053

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