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Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model

by 1 and 1,2,3,*
1
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
Beijing Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
3
Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration and Integrated Ecological Regulation, Beijing 100875, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Domenico Cicchella
Water 2021, 13(6), 874; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060874
Received: 18 February 2021 / Revised: 9 March 2021 / Accepted: 16 March 2021 / Published: 23 March 2021
The Miyun Reservoir is an important source of surface drinking water in Beijing. Due to climate change and human activities, the inflow of Miyun Reservoir watershed (MRW) has been continuously reduced in the past 30 years, which has seriously affected the safety of Beijing’s water supply. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the mitigation measures based on the quantification of the integrated impacts of climate and land use change in MRW. The non-point source (NPS) model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for the development of future climate scenarios which were derived from two regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three land use scenarios were generated by the land use model (conversion of land-use and its effects (CLUE-S)): (1) historical trend scenario, (2) ecological protection without consideration of spatial configuration scenario and (3) ecological protection scenario. Moreover, the reduction of sediment and nutrients under three future land use patterns in future climate scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that an appropriate land use change project led to the desired reduction effect on sediment and nutrients output under future climate scenarios. The average reduction rates of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were 11.4%, 6.3% and 7.4%, respectively. The ecological protection scenario considering spatial configuration showed the best reduction effect on sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Therefore, the addition of region-specific preference variables as part of land use change provides better pollutant control effects. Overall, this research provides technical support to protect the safety of Beijing’s drinking water and future management of non-point source pollution in MRW. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; land use change; streamflow; water quality; SWAT; CLUE-S climate change; land use change; streamflow; water quality; SWAT; CLUE-S
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MDPI and ACS Style

Feng, M.; Shen, Z. Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model. Water 2021, 13, 874. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060874

AMA Style

Feng M, Shen Z. Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model. Water. 2021; 13(6):874. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060874

Chicago/Turabian Style

Feng, Mao; Shen, Zhenyao. 2021. "Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model" Water 13, no. 6: 874. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060874

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