Next Article in Journal
Nitrogen Migration and Transformation Mechanism in the Groundwater Level Fluctuation Zone of Typical Medium
Previous Article in Journal
Numerical Simulation of Local Scour around Three Cylindrical Piles in a Tandem Arrangement
Article

Quantitative Analysis of Winter Wheat Growth and Yields Responding to Climate Change in Xinjiang, China

by 1,2,†, 2,†, 2,*, 1,*, 1, 3, 4, 5,6 and 7
1
College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
2
College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
3
College of Nature Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
4
College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
5
NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
6
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
7
Key Laboratory of High-Efficient and Safe Utilization of Agriculture Water Resources, Institute of Farmland Irrigation of CAAS, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453002, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Haixia Lin and Na Li contributed equally.
Academic Editor: Claudio Cassardo
Water 2021, 13(24), 3624; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13243624
Received: 4 November 2021 / Revised: 10 December 2021 / Accepted: 14 December 2021 / Published: 16 December 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Water, Agriculture and Aquaculture)
The knowledge of climate change effects on variations of winter wheat yields are crucial for productions. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between yield-related indices of winter wheat and the related climatic variables (selected using variance inflation factors) at the 20 sites of Xinjiang, China over 1981–2017. The background of climate and yield changes was analyzed from temporal and spatial respects. The number of independent climatic variables was selected with the variance inflation factor method to remove the multicollinear feature. The Pearson correlation was conducted between the first difference values of climatic variables and yield-related indices of winter wheat (namely plant height, growth period duration, 1000-kernel weight, kernel number per ear, biomass and yield) to find the key climatic variables that impacted winter wheat growth and yields. The multi-variate linear and nonlinear functions were established step by step using the selected key climatic variables. The best function was determined for each site (significant for p < 0.05). From the results, there were general wetter and warmer trends of the climatic variables. Correspondingly, shortened winter wheat phenology and increased growth and yields were observed for most sites. Still, the climatic trends had mixed effects on winter wheat yields. The effects of precipitation, mean air temperature and relative humidity on plant height and growth period duration agreed well. Different sites had different major climatic drivers for winter wheat growth or yields, and the best functions of growth and yields could be linearly or nonlinearly, mostly described by multi-variate functions. The winter wheat growth or yield indices were also found to be closely connected with the soil water content status at the eight sites. The relationship between winter wheat growth or yield and climate provided useful references for forecasting crop production and for projecting the impact of future climate changes. View Full-Text
Keywords: multi-variate linear regression; nonlinear regression; climate change; winter wheat growth; yield; climatic variable multi-variate linear regression; nonlinear regression; climate change; winter wheat growth; yield; climatic variable
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Lin, H.; Li, N.; Li, Y.; Liu, H.; Liu, J.; Li, L.; Feng, P.; Liu, D.; Liu, C. Quantitative Analysis of Winter Wheat Growth and Yields Responding to Climate Change in Xinjiang, China. Water 2021, 13, 3624. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13243624

AMA Style

Lin H, Li N, Li Y, Liu H, Liu J, Li L, Feng P, Liu D, Liu C. Quantitative Analysis of Winter Wheat Growth and Yields Responding to Climate Change in Xinjiang, China. Water. 2021; 13(24):3624. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13243624

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lin, Haixia, Na Li, Yi Li, Hongguang Liu, Jian Liu, Linchao Li, Puyu Feng, Deli Liu, and Chuncheng Liu. 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Winter Wheat Growth and Yields Responding to Climate Change in Xinjiang, China" Water 13, no. 24: 3624. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13243624

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop