Forecasting Summer Rainfall and Streamflow over the Yangtze River Valley Using Western Pacific Subtropical High Feature
2. Dataset Description
2.1. Rainfall Data and Streamflow
2.2. Reanalysis Dataset and Hindcasts of CFSv2
2.3. Definition of WPSHI
3. ROC Analysis
4. Modelling Methodology
4.1. Three Testing Procedures
4.2. Logistic Regression
4.3. Exceedance Probability Forecast
- The series of thresholds are selected based on the observation of the predictand . First, sort the Y values in the samples in 1982–2018 as the descending order , where n is the number of all samples. Then, the thresholds used here are . This setting will make at least 5 samples for the positive or negative class.
- Choose one threshold in step 1 and one test year in the sample set (1982–2018). All samples can be divided into two classes based on the value of the predictand , i.e., years with (the positive class) and years with (the negative class). Use the training set to fit a logistic regression, and then use the fitted model to forecast for the test year.
- Repeat step 2 for all threshold and all test years.
4.4. Skill Metric along the Threshold
5.1. Results of PA
5.2. Results of MOS and RAN
- The rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley is more sensitive to the variability of WPSHI when WPSHI is high, while when WPSHI is less than 0.5, the rainfall shows low sensitivity. Furthermore, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley show higher sensitivity to the variability of WPSHI than other regions. This characteristic leads to higher forecasting skill of exceedance probability forecasts corresponding to larger thresholds of rainfall.
- The analysis of predictability of summer streamflow of the Yangtze River Valley shows that WPSHI can only enhance the forecasting skill for binary classification corresponding to larger thresholds of streamflow.
- A comparison between two postprocessing approaches shows that the RAN approach shows a higher skill than model output statistics (MOS), as RAN can utilize more samples than MOS.
- When building a long-term forecasting model for generating exceedance probability forecasts, one should notice the effect of the threshold, and find a proper threshold with a higher skill.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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He, R.; Chen, Y.; Huang, Q.; Wang, W.; Li, G. Forecasting Summer Rainfall and Streamflow over the Yangtze River Valley Using Western Pacific Subtropical High Feature. Water 2021, 13, 2580. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182580
He R, Chen Y, Huang Q, Wang W, Li G. Forecasting Summer Rainfall and Streamflow over the Yangtze River Valley Using Western Pacific Subtropical High Feature. Water. 2021; 13(18):2580. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182580Chicago/Turabian Style
He, Ranran, Yuanfang Chen, Qin Huang, Wenpeng Wang, and Guofang Li. 2021. "Forecasting Summer Rainfall and Streamflow over the Yangtze River Valley Using Western Pacific Subtropical High Feature" Water 13, no. 18: 2580. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13182580