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Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Suite 219-2 Research Drive, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
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Academic Editor: Aizhong Ye
Water 2021, 13(17), 2425; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172425
Received: 9 July 2021 / Revised: 27 August 2021 / Accepted: 31 August 2021 / Published: 3 September 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to alter the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. A realistic assessment of future climate change and inter-annual variability is required to meet a growing demand for water supplies in all major use sectors. This study focuses on changes in climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) above Edmonton, AB, Canada, using the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale communautaire—Surface Hydrology) model. The bias-corrected ensemble of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) data is used to drive MESH for two 60-year time periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season, there is significant trend in spring (0.62) and fall (0.41) and insignificant in summer (0.008). Winter extreme minimum temperature and summer extreme maximum temperature are increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future and 5–6 °C in the far future. Annual runoff increases by 19% compared to base period. The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the NSRB. View Full-Text
Keywords: ensemble modeling; land surface hydrological model; climate change; extreme runoff change ensemble modeling; land surface hydrological model; climate change; extreme runoff change
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MDPI and ACS Style

Anis, M.R.; Sauchyn, D.J. Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Water 2021, 13, 2425. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172425

AMA Style

Anis MR, Sauchyn DJ. Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Water. 2021; 13(17):2425. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172425

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anis, Muhammad R., and David J. Sauchyn 2021. "Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada" Water 13, no. 17: 2425. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172425

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