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Article

Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

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Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
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Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST), Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
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Water Modeling Solutions Pvt. Ltd. (WMS), Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
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Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Raghavan Srinivasan
Water 2021, 13(11), 1548; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111548
Received: 9 April 2021 / Revised: 23 May 2021 / Accepted: 24 May 2021 / Published: 31 May 2021
This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; fractional difference; SWAT; quantile mapping; extreme flow climate change; fractional difference; SWAT; quantile mapping; extreme flow
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MDPI and ACS Style

Marahatta, S.; Aryal, D.; Devkota, L.P.; Bhattarai, U.; Shrestha, D. Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment). Water 2021, 13, 1548. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111548

AMA Style

Marahatta S, Aryal D, Devkota LP, Bhattarai U, Shrestha D. Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment). Water. 2021; 13(11):1548. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111548

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marahatta, Suresh, Deepak Aryal, Laxmi P. Devkota, Utsav Bhattarai, and Dibesh Shrestha. 2021. "Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)" Water 13, no. 11: 1548. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111548

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