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Article

Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

1
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210000, China
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Scott Curtis
Water 2021, 13(11), 1509; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111509
Received: 22 April 2021 / Revised: 20 May 2021 / Accepted: 25 May 2021 / Published: 27 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
In the context of global climate change, it is important to monitor abnormal changes in extreme precipitation events that lead to frequent floods. This research used precipitation indices to describe variations in extreme precipitation and analyzed the characteristics of extreme precipitation in four climatic (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid) regions across China. The equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method was used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation in eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs). From 1961 to 2005, the humid region had stronger and longer extreme precipitation compared with the other regions. In the future, the projected extreme precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer, and there will be large areas with substantial changes in maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5) and precipitation intensity (SDII). The greatest differences between two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are in semi-arid and semi-humid areas for summer precipitation anomalies. However, the area of the four regions with an increasing trend of extreme precipitation is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. The increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the future is relatively pronounced, especially in humid areas, implying a potential heightened flood risk in these areas. View Full-Text
Keywords: China; climate change; general circulation models; extreme precipitation; precipitation indices; seasonal characteristic; spatial and temporal unevenness China; climate change; general circulation models; extreme precipitation; precipitation indices; seasonal characteristic; spatial and temporal unevenness
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, M.; Yang, X.; Ren, L.; Pan, M.; Jiang, S.; Liu, Y.; Yuan, F.; Fang, X. Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections. Water 2021, 13, 1509. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111509

AMA Style

Zhang M, Yang X, Ren L, Pan M, Jiang S, Liu Y, Yuan F, Fang X. Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections. Water. 2021; 13(11):1509. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111509

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Mengru, Xiaoli Yang, Liliang Ren, Ming Pan, Shanhu Jiang, Yi Liu, Fei Yuan, and Xiuqin Fang. 2021. "Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections" Water 13, no. 11: 1509. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111509

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