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Open AccessArticle

Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches

1
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), International Water Research Institute, Benguerir 43150, Morocco
2
Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Ecole Nationale d’Agriculture de Meknès, Meknes 50001, Morocco
3
Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR), Centre D’études Spatiales de la Biosphère (Cesbio), 31401 Toulouse, France
4
L3G Laboratory, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences & Techniques, University of Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech 40000, Morocco
5
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), Center for Remote Sensing Applications, Benguerir 43150, Morocco
6
Acquatec Solutions FZCO, Dubai-Digital Park, Dubai PO 6009, UAE
7
International Water Management Institute, 00054 Rome, Italy
8
Laboratory of Functional Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of sciences & Techniques, University of Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, Fez 30000, Morocco
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Formerly: International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture, Academic City, Al Ain Road, Dubai 14660, UAE.
Water 2020, 12(9), 2333; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333
Received: 15 May 2020 / Revised: 18 July 2020 / Accepted: 20 July 2020 / Published: 19 August 2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from −45.6% to −76.7% under RCP4.5, and from −66.7% to −95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed. View Full-Text
Keywords: drought indices; SWAT; spatiotemporal assessment; water yield; Bouregreg watershed drought indices; SWAT; spatiotemporal assessment; water yield; Bouregreg watershed
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MDPI and ACS Style

Brouziyne, Y.; Abouabdillah, A.; Chehbouni, A.; Hanich, L.; Bergaoui, K.; McDonnell, R.; Benaabidate, L. Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches. Water 2020, 12, 2333. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333

AMA Style

Brouziyne Y, Abouabdillah A, Chehbouni A, Hanich L, Bergaoui K, McDonnell R, Benaabidate L. Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches. Water. 2020; 12(9):2333. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brouziyne, Youssef; Abouabdillah, Aziz; Chehbouni, Abdelghani; Hanich, Lahoucine; Bergaoui, Karim; McDonnell, Rachael; Benaabidate, Lahcen. 2020. "Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches" Water 12, no. 9: 2333. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333

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