Application of GWO-ELM Model to Prediction of Caojiatuo Landslide Displacement in the Three Gorge Reservoir Area
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. The Proposed Landslide Displacement Prediction Model
2.1. Time Series Model
2.2. Extreme Learning Machine Model
2.3. Gray Wolf Optimization
2.4. Proposed Prediction Model Based on GWO-ELM
3. Caojiatuo Landslide
3.1. Geologic Aspects
3.2. Monitoring Data Analysis
4. Case Study
4.1. Prediction of Trend Displacement
4.2. Prediction of Periodic Displacement
4.2.1. The External Influencing Factors
4.2.2. Prediction by GWO-ELM Model
4.2.3. Analysis of Prediction Results
4.3. Prediction of the Accumulative Displacement
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Landslides | Monitoring Points | Period | a | b | c | d | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Caojiatuo Landslide | GPS-6 | January 2008 to June 2009 | 0.019 | −0.569 | 14.31 | 52.0 | 0.9987 |
July 2009 to July 2010 | −0.0794 | 5.665 | −109.61 | 801.7 | 0.9998 | ||
August 2010 to July 2012 | 0.0077 | −0.886 | 38.65 | −94.1 | 0.9982 | ||
August 2012 to December 2013 | −0.0238 | 4.132 | −218.30 | 4090.7 | 0.9998 | ||
GPS-3 | January 2008 to June 2009 | 0.0152 | −0.6089 | 13.317 | 51.855 | 0.9993 | |
July 2009 to July 2010 | −0.0653 | 4.7216 | −92.024 | 691.59 | 0.9996 | ||
August 2010 to July 2013 | −0.0025 | 0.6822 | −40.139 | 1113 | 0.9949 |
Input Item | GPS-6 | GRG | GPS-3 | GRG | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Precipitation | Input 1 | The one-month cumulative antecedent rainfall | 0.83 | Input 1 | The one-month cumulative antecedent rainfall | 0.82 |
Input 2 | The two-month cumulative antecedent rainfall | 0.81 | Input 2 | two-month cumulative antecedent rainfall | 0.80 | |
Reservoir level | Input 3 | Reservoir level change in one-month period | 0.88 | Input 3 | Reservoir level change in one-month period | 0.87 |
Input 4 | Reservoir level change in two-month period | 0.86 | Input 4 | Reservoir level change in two-month period | 0.84 | |
Input 5 | The average elevation of reservoir level in the current month | 0.86 | Input 5 | The average elevation of reservoir level in the current month | 0.82 | |
Evolution | Input 6 | The displacement over the past one month | 0.87 | Input 6 | The displacement over the past one month | 0.86 |
Input 7 | The displacement over the past two months | 0.85 | Input 7 | The displacement over the past two months | 0.82 | |
Input 8 | The displacement over the past three months | 0.83 | Input 8 | The displacement over the past three months | 0.80 |
Model | GWO | ELM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of Wolf Groups | Number of Iterations | Number of Neurons | Total Number of Nodes | Excitation Function | Application Type | |
GWO-ELM | 30 | 220 | 10 | 70 | Sigmoid | 0(regression, fitting) |
ELM | - | - | 10 | 70 | Sigmoid | 0(regression, fitting) |
Time | The Measured Values (mm) | The GWO-ELM Model | The ELM Model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predictive Values (mm) | Absolute Error (mm) | Relative Error (%) | Predictive Values (mm) | Absolute Error (mm) | Relative Error (%) | ||
13 January | 60.12 | 53.2 | 6.9 | 11.47 | 72.8 | 12.7 | 21.08 |
13 February | 52.34 | 46.5 | 5.8 | 11.15 | 64.4 | 12.1 | 23.03 |
13 March | 40.22 | 37.0 | 3.2 | 8.04 | 52.1 | 11.9 | 29.49 |
13 April | 34.56 | 28.0 | 6.5 | 18.91 | 22.4 | 12.1 | 35.08 |
13 May | 41.50 | 37.5 | 4.0 | 9.57 | 27.5 | 14.0 | 33.83 |
13 June | 48.58 | 44.2 | 4.4 | 8.96 | 38.6 | 9.9 | 20.47 |
13 July | 96.36 | 103.0 | 6.6 | 6.84 | 85.1 | 11.3 | 11.74 |
13 August | 106.08 | 111.3 | 5.3 | 4.95 | 122.5 | 16.4 | 15.49 |
13 September | 120.79 | 125.9 | 5.1 | 4.20 | 135.9 | 15.1 | 12.54 |
13 October | 105.90 | 111.3 | 5.4 | 5.11 | 119.7 | 13.8 | 13.03 |
13 November | 72.77 | 65.4 | 7.3 | 10.06 | 58.2 | 14.6 | 20.05 |
13 December | 64.62 | 58.7 | 5.9 | 9.11 | 48.1 | 16.5 | 25.56 |
Min | N/A | N/A | 3.2 | 4.20 | N/A | 9.9 | 11.74 |
Max | N/A | N/A | 7.3 | 18.91 | N/A | 16.5 | 35.08 |
Mean | N/A | N/A | 5.5 | 9.03 | N/A | 13.4 | 21.78 |
RMSE | N/A | 5.66 | N/A | N/A | 13.52 | N/A | N/A |
Time | The Measured Values (mm) | The GWO-ELM Model | The ELM Model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predictive Values (mm) | Absolute Error (mm) | Relative Error (%) | Predictive Values (mm) | Absolute Error (mm) | Relative Error (%) | ||
13 January | 93.8 | 96.9 | 3.1 | 3.33 | 84.2 | 9.5 | 10.18 |
13 February | 75.4 | 78.1 | 2.7 | 3.56 | 67.1 | 8.3 | 11.02 |
13 March | 57.1 | 60.2 | 3.1 | 5.47 | 49.1 | 8.0 | 13.95 |
13 April | 38.8 | 42.3 | 3.6 | 9.18 | 32.0 | 6.7 | 17.37 |
13 May | 23.8 | 21.4 | 2.4 | 10.09 | 18.4 | 5.3 | 22.44 |
13 June | 57.9 | 55.4 | 2.5 | 4.31 | 53.5 | 4.4 | 7.61 |
13 July | 120.0 | 123.5 | 3.5 | 2.96 | 128.1 | 8.1 | 6.73 |
13 August | 113.3 | 116.6 | 3.2 | 2.85 | 120.2 | 6.8 | 6.04 |
13 September | 101.7 | 99.5 | 2.1 | 2.09 | 107.9 | 6.2 | 6.13 |
13 October | 90.0 | 93.4 | 3.4 | 3.82 | 83.8 | 6.2 | 6.92 |
13 November | 78.3 | 82.1 | 3.8 | 4.79 | 70.6 | 7.7 | 9.85 |
13 December | 66.7 | 64.2 | 2.5 | 3.72 | 60.1 | 6.6 | 9.87 |
Min | N/A | N/A | 2.1 | 2.09 | N/A | 4.4 | 6.04 |
Max | N/A | N/A | 3.8 | 10.09 | N/A | 9.5 | 22.44 |
Mean | N/A | N/A | 3.0 | 4.68 | N/A | 7.0 | 10.67 |
RMSE | N/A | 3.04 | N/A | N/A | 7.12 | N/A | N/A |
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Zhang, L.; Chen, X.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, F.; Chen, F.; Wang, W.; Guo, F. Application of GWO-ELM Model to Prediction of Caojiatuo Landslide Displacement in the Three Gorge Reservoir Area. Water 2020, 12, 1860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071860
Zhang L, Chen X, Zhang Y, Wu F, Chen F, Wang W, Guo F. Application of GWO-ELM Model to Prediction of Caojiatuo Landslide Displacement in the Three Gorge Reservoir Area. Water. 2020; 12(7):1860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071860
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Liguo, Xinquan Chen, Yonggang Zhang, Fuwei Wu, Fei Chen, Weiting Wang, and Fei Guo. 2020. "Application of GWO-ELM Model to Prediction of Caojiatuo Landslide Displacement in the Three Gorge Reservoir Area" Water 12, no. 7: 1860. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071860