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Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

1
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
2
National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247667, India
3
Civil Engineering Department, IIT, Roorkee 247667, India
4
Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(6), 1762; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061762
Received: 13 May 2020 / Revised: 12 June 2020 / Accepted: 16 June 2020 / Published: 20 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Water Use and Scarcity)
The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin. View Full-Text
Keywords: Narmada; hydrological modelling; climate change; water demand; water resources Narmada; hydrological modelling; climate change; water demand; water resources
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MDPI and ACS Style

Rickards, N.; Thomas, T.; Kaelin, A.; Houghton-Carr, H.; Jain, S.K.; Mishra, P.K.; Nema, M.K.; Dixon, H.; Rahman, M.M.; Horan, R.; Jenkins, A.; Rees, G. Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada. Water 2020, 12, 1762. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061762

AMA Style

Rickards N, Thomas T, Kaelin A, Houghton-Carr H, Jain SK, Mishra PK, Nema MK, Dixon H, Rahman MM, Horan R, Jenkins A, Rees G. Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada. Water. 2020; 12(6):1762. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061762

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rickards, Nathan, Thomas Thomas, Alexandra Kaelin, Helen Houghton-Carr, Sharad K. Jain, Prabhash K. Mishra, Manish K. Nema, Harry Dixon, Mohammed M. Rahman, Robyn Horan, Alan Jenkins, and Gwyn Rees. 2020. "Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada" Water 12, no. 6: 1762. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061762

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