Next Article in Journal
May a Standard VOF Numerical Simulation Adequately Complete Spillway Laboratory Measurements in an Operational Context? The Case of Sa Stria Dam
Next Article in Special Issue
Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Based on CSM: Case Studies of Top Three Largest Rivers in China
Previous Article in Journal
Water Price Effects on Consumption and Territorial Imbalances in Spain in the Context of the Water Framework Directive
Previous Article in Special Issue
Flood Routing Process and High Dam Interception of Natural Discharge from the 2018 Baige Landslide-Dammed Lake
Article

Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China

by 1 and 2,*
1
Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability Research, UR-NCEPU, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S0A2, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(6), 1605; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061605
Received: 1 May 2020 / Revised: 28 May 2020 / Accepted: 3 June 2020 / Published: 4 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Prediction and Flooding Risk Assessment)
The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures. View Full-Text
Keywords: hydrological drought; water scarcity; copula; Water Exploitation Index Plus hydrological drought; water scarcity; copula; Water Exploitation Index Plus
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Sun, C.; Zhou, X. Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China. Water 2020, 12, 1605. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061605

AMA Style

Sun C, Zhou X. Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China. Water. 2020; 12(6):1605. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061605

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sun, Chaoxing; Zhou, Xiong. 2020. "Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China" Water 12, no. 6: 1605. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061605

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop