Runoff Changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Site Description, Methodology and Data Sets
2.1. Site Description
2.2. Methodology and Data Sets
2.2.1. Water Balance Model
2.2.2. Data Sets
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Total Runoff (R)
3.2. Precipitation Runoff Derived from the Nonglacierized Area (Rng) and Glacier Surface (Rpg)
3.3. Glacier Mass Balance (MB)
3.4. Glacial Runoff (Rg)
4. Conclusions and Outlook
- Average total runoff at the UG1HMS was about 206.96 × 104 m3 over the past 60 years, of which the average Rg accounted for 70%, among them Rpg and MB accounted for 44% and 26%, respectively. The rest was precipitation runoff in nonglacierized areas. R demonstrated a significant increase in the period of 1993–2018, with an increase of 114.39 × 104 m3, corresponding to 1.7 times R during the period of 1959–1992. This increase was correlated with temperature and associated with precipitation, indicating that both the mass reduction of the glacier and the elevated precipitation were contributors. At present, R and its components are characterized by high values with great annual fluctuation.
- As important components, precipitation runoff from the glacier surface (Rpg) and nonglacial areas (Rng) were determined by the amount of precipitation in the catchment, showing a step increase after 1995. A higher temperature can elevate the runoff coefficient on the glacier (αg) resulting in an enhanced Rpg, and vice versa. The recession of the glacier area, which reduces Rg and increases Rng, had an overall negative impact on the R value.
- The modeled glacier mass balance MB was inversely correlated with air temperature and showed a strong negative growth trend over the past 60 years. For precipitation, A higher solid precipitation can moderate glacier melting thus making MB more positive, and oppositely, a higher liquid precipitation can accelerate glacier melting thus making MB more negative.
- Over the past 60 years, the long-term change of glacial runoff showed an increasing trend, particularly after 1992. After reaching its maximum during the period 1997–2007, it decreased slightly from 1998 to 2018. We found that the general reduction of precipitation and particularly the shrinkage of the glacier area were responsible for the downward trend. The period of 1997–2007 is likely to be the “peak water” (tipping point) of the glacial runoff, as described by Huss et al. (2018) [16]. However, to verify it, longer observation and a more in-depth quantitative analysis are required.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Jia, Y.; Li, Z.; Jin, S.; Xu, C.; Deng, H.; Zhang, M. Runoff Changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia. Water 2020, 12, 1286. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051286
Jia Y, Li Z, Jin S, Xu C, Deng H, Zhang M. Runoff Changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia. Water. 2020; 12(5):1286. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051286
Chicago/Turabian StyleJia, Yufeng, Zhongqin Li, Shuang Jin, Chunhai Xu, Haijun Deng, and Mingjun Zhang. 2020. "Runoff Changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia" Water 12, no. 5: 1286. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051286