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Open AccessArticle

Selection of CMIP5 GCM Ensemble for the Projection of Spatio-Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature over the Niger Delta, Nigeria

1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, 16 Richmond St, Glasgow G1 1XQ, UK
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, University Bauchi, Bauchi State 740001, Nigeria
3
Department of Geology, University of Ibadan, Oyo State 200001, Nigeria
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(2), 385; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020385
Received: 4 December 2019 / Revised: 14 January 2020 / Accepted: 28 January 2020 / Published: 1 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Selection of a suitable general circulation model (GCM) ensemble is crucial for effective water resource management and reliable climate studies in developing countries with constraint in human and computational resources. A careful selection of a GCM subset by excluding those with limited similarity to the observed climate from the existing pool of GCMs developed by different modeling centers at various resolutions can ease the task and minimize uncertainties. In this study, a feature selection method known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) was employed to assess the performance of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM outputs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selection was made according to their capability to simulate observed daily precipitation (prcp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) over the historical period 1980–2005 in the Niger Delta region, which is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. The ensemble of the four top-ranked GCMs, namely ACCESS1.3, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHM, and NorESM1-M, were selected for the spatio-temporal projection of prcp, Tmax, and Tmin over the study area. Results from the chosen ensemble predicted an increase in the mean annual prcp between the range of 0.26% to 3.57% under RCP4.5, and 0.7% to 4.94% under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century when compared to the base period. The study also revealed an increase in Tmax in the range of 0 to 0.4 °C under RCP4.5 and 1.25–1.79 °C under RCP8.5 during the periods 2070–2099. Tmin also revealed a significant increase of 0 to 0.52 °C under RCP4.5 and between 1.38–2.02 °C under RCP8.5, which shows that extreme events might threaten the Niger Delta due to climate change. Water resource managers in the region can use these findings for effective water resource planning, management, and adaptation measures. View Full-Text
Keywords: global climate models; Niger Delta; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; representative concentration pathways; symmetrical uncertainty; temperature; precipitation; gridded dataset global climate models; Niger Delta; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; representative concentration pathways; symmetrical uncertainty; temperature; precipitation; gridded dataset
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Hassan, I.; Kalin, R.M.; White, C.J.; Aladejana, J.A. Selection of CMIP5 GCM Ensemble for the Projection of Spatio-Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature over the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Water 2020, 12, 385.

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