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Article

Multistep Flood Inundation Forecasts with Resilient Backpropagation Neural Networks: Kulmbach Case Study

Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munich, Germany
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Water 2020, 12(12), 3568; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123568
Received: 21 October 2020 / Revised: 29 November 2020 / Accepted: 10 December 2020 / Published: 19 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling of Floods in Urban Areas)
Flooding, a significant natural disaster, attracts worldwide attention because of its high impact on communities and individuals and increasing trend due to climate change. A flood forecast system can minimize the impacts by predicting the flood hazard before it occurs. Artificial neural networks (ANN) could efficiently process large amounts of data and find relations that enable faster flood predictions. The aim of this study is to perform multistep forecasts for 1–5 h after the flooding event has been triggered by a forecast threshold value. In this work, an ANN developed for the real-time forecast of flood inundation with a high spatial resolution (4 m × 4 m) is extended to allow for multiple forecasts. After trained with 120 synthetic flood events, the ANN was first tested with 60 synthetic events for verifying the forecast performance for 3 h, 6 h, 9 h and 12 h lead time. The model produces good results, as shown by more than 81% of all grids having an RMSE below 0.3 m. The ANN is then applied to the three historical flood events to test the multistep inundation forecast. For the historical flood events, the results show that the ANN outputs have a good forecast accuracy of the water depths for (at least) the 3 h forecast with over 70% accuracy (RMSE within 0.3 m), and a moderate accuracy for the subsequent forecasts with (at least) 60% accuracy. View Full-Text
Keywords: hazard; artificial neural network; resilient backpropagation; multistep urban flood forecast hazard; artificial neural network; resilient backpropagation; multistep urban flood forecast
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MDPI and ACS Style

Lin, Q.; Leandro, J.; Gerber, S.; Disse, M. Multistep Flood Inundation Forecasts with Resilient Backpropagation Neural Networks: Kulmbach Case Study. Water 2020, 12, 3568. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123568

AMA Style

Lin Q, Leandro J, Gerber S, Disse M. Multistep Flood Inundation Forecasts with Resilient Backpropagation Neural Networks: Kulmbach Case Study. Water. 2020; 12(12):3568. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123568

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lin, Qing; Leandro, Jorge; Gerber, Stefan; Disse, Markus. 2020. "Multistep Flood Inundation Forecasts with Resilient Backpropagation Neural Networks: Kulmbach Case Study" Water 12, no. 12: 3568. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123568

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