Using Budyko-Type Equations for Separating the Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
3. Research Methods
3.1. Trend Analysis (Slope)
3.2. Mutation Analysis
3.3. Budyko Hypothesis
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Trends of Runoff, NDVI, and Climate Change
4.2. Abrupt Changes of Runoff
4.3. Assessment of the Contribution Rates of Climate Change and Human Activities to Runoff Change
- (1)
- There were NDVI remote sensing image data from June 1981 to December 1989 in T1 period (1961–1989), so we established the multiple linear regression relationship between NDVI and climatic factors (precipitation and potential evaporation) from July 1981 to December 1989.
- (2)
- Due to a lack of NDVI values in the period from January 1961 to June 1981, we further assumed that the multiple linear regression relationship in the period from June 1981 to December 1989 was the same as the period from January 1961 to June 1981. NDVI values for the period from January 1961 to June 1981 were calculated based on precipitation and potential evaporation in the corresponding periods.
- (3)
- We calculated the mean value of measured NDVI () in T1 period (1961–1989), the mean value of measured NDVI () in T2 period (1990–2015), and the mean value of NDVI under climate change () in the T2 period (1990–2015) according to the multiple linear regression function.
- (4)
- We calculated the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to NDVI changes using formula (26)–(29) (Table 1).
4.4. Discussions
- (1)
- Uncertainties of meteorological station observation data
- (2)
- Uncertainties in the division of base period and change period
- (3)
- Uncertainties caused by using NDVI to characterize land type change
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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T1 | T2 | Fitting Equation | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1961–1989 | 1990–2015 | NDVI = 3.069 × 10−3 P + 8.875× 10−4 ET0 + 0.1588 (R2 = 0.79) | 0.0282 | 0.3289 | 0.3466 | 0.3571 | 62.79 | 37.21 |
Hydrological Station | Period | ET0/mm | R/mm | P/mm | R/P | ET0/P | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tangnaihai | T1 | 796.54 | 180.39 | 518.92 | 1.13 | 0.35 | 1.54 |
T2 | 805.38 | 148.85 | 502.66 | 1.26 | 0.30 | 1.60 |
εP | εET0 | εω | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.77 | −0.77 | −1.16 | −31.54 | −16.26 | 8.84 | 0.13 | −9.36 | −1.41 | −13.32 | −7.89 | 75.33 | 24.67 |
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Yan, D.; Lai, Z.; Ji, G. Using Budyko-Type Equations for Separating the Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River. Water 2020, 12, 3418. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123418
Yan D, Lai Z, Ji G. Using Budyko-Type Equations for Separating the Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River. Water. 2020; 12(12):3418. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123418
Chicago/Turabian StyleYan, Dan, Zhizhu Lai, and Guangxing Ji. 2020. "Using Budyko-Type Equations for Separating the Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River" Water 12, no. 12: 3418. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123418