Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area, Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.2.1. Observational Datasets
2.2.2. CORDEX Models and Sensitivity Analysis
2.2.3. Hydrological Model
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Streamflow Simulations
2.3.2. Mann-Kendall Trend
2.3.3. Extreme Value Analysis of Streamflow
2.3.4. Standardized Streamflow Index
3. Results
3.1. Trends in Historical Streamflow
3.2. Trends in Projected Streamflow
3.3. Hydrological Extremes
3.3.1. Extreme Value Analysis
3.3.2. Assessment of Hydrological Drought in the Limpopo River Basin
3.3.3. Proportion of Projected Dry/Wet Years
3.3.4. Trends in Drought Monitoring Indicators
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
- The LRB is experiencing frequent dry conditions (decrease in streamflow) under the current climatology. The conditions are projected to continue in both the near future and towards the end of the century time intervals. Prolonged dry conditions can translate to drought in the basin.
- The region is also likely to experience wet conditions at an average that can result in (flash) floods.
- Significant dry and wet years are projected in the LRB in the near future and as we move into the distant future. The CORDEX model analysis under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios project that the LRB will experience, on average, 64% (46%) and 45% (55%) of dry (wet) years, respectively in the near future. As we move towards the end of the century period, the basin is projected to experience an average of 48% (52%) and 55% (45%) of dry (wet) years when considering GCM simulations under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively.
- The hydrological extremes are best represented by the Fréchet generalized extreme value distribution over the LRBs. This GEV family could be ideal for calculating the return periods of extreme events in the LRB.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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2006–2035 | 2036–2065 | 2070–2099 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CORDEX Model | RCP8.5 [RCP4.5] | RCP8.5 [RCP4.5] | RCP8.5 [RCP4.5] | ||||||
Mean | Min | Max | Mean | Min | Max | Mean | Min | Max | |
CanESM2 | −0.13 [−0.05] | −0.16 [−0.02] | −0.06 [0.06] | −0.16 [0.05] | −0.32 [0.04] | −0.06 [0.16] | −0.27 [0.45] | −0.21 [0.55] | −0.09 [0.29] |
IPSL-CM5A | −0.08 [0.16] | −0.11 [0.19] | −0.12 [0.14] | −0.10 [−0.16] | 0.04 [0.33] | −0.01 [0.06] | −0.17 [0.10] | −0.15 [0.02] | −0.10 [0.17] |
Ensemble | −0.21 [0.15] | −0.23 [0.09] | −0.2 [0.18] | −0.11 [0.03] | 0.09 [−0.17] | 0.05 [0.18] | −0.29 [0.23] | 0.09 [0.07] | −0.18 [0.03] |
2006–2035 Simulations | ||||||
CORDEX Model | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | ||||
Q0.1 | Q0.5 | Q0.9 | Q0.1 | Q0.5 | Q0.9 | |
CanESM2 | −0.191 | −0.088 | −0.093 | 0.052 | −0.041 | −0.062 |
IPSL-CM5A | −0.048 | −0.030 | −0.062 | 0.254 | 0.052 | 0.144 |
Ensemble | −0.230 | 0.037 | −0.020 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.174 |
2036–2065 Simulations | ||||||
CanESM2 | −0.303 | −0.114 | −0.200 | −0.006 | −0.050 | −0.110 |
IPSL-CM5A | −0.033 | −0.088 | −0.103 | −0.320 | −0.196 | −0.239 |
Ensemble | 0.119 | 0.002 | −0.127 | −0.182 | −0.101 | −0.060 |
2070–2099 Simulations | ||||||
CanESM2 | −0.146 | −0.228 | −0.217 | 0.475 | 0.376 | 0.406 |
IPSL-CM5A | 0.009 | −0.149 | −0.095 | −0.025 | 0.050 | 0.142 |
Ensemble | 0.090 | −0.276 | −0.234 | −0.051 | 0.191 | 0.131 |
2006–2035 Simulations | ||||||
CORDEX Model | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | ||||
Location | Scale | Shape | Location | Scale | Shape | |
CanESM2 | 9.10 | 10.38 | 1.48 | 9.14 | 10.65 | 1.43 |
IPSL-CM5A | 7.30 | 8.03 | 1.12 | 9.64 | 9.84 | 1.10 |
Ensemble | 13.67 | 15.24 | 1.29 | 10.72 | 9.61 | 1.48 |
2036–2065 Simulations | ||||||
CanESM2 | 6.30 | 6.45 | 1.43 | 6.71 | 5.49 | 1.40 |
IPSL-CM5A | 5.45 | 5.07 | 0.82 | 6.19 | 4.22 | 1.45 |
Ensemble | 9.06 | 8.86 | 1.29 | 10.91 | 9.19 | 1.25 |
2070–2099 Simulations | ||||||
CanESM2 | 4.54 | 3.89 | 1.90 | 8.87 | 11.28 | 1.52 |
IPSL-CM5A | 7.51 | 8.75 | 0.96 | 7.65 | 7.32 | 1.37 |
Ensemble | 6.80 | 7.83 | 1.94 | 11.88 | 14.21 | 1.52 |
2006–2035 Simulations | ||||||||
CORDEX Model | SSI-6 | SSI-12 | ||||||
RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | |||||
DD | DS | DD | DS | DD | DS | DD | DS | |
CanESM2 | 0.000 | −0.067 | 0.000 | 0.023 | 0.083 | −0.040 | 0.045 | 0.009 |
IPSL-CM5A | −0.056 | 0.014 | −0.050 | −0.010 | 0.000 | −0.091 | 0.000 | −0.018 |
Ensemble | 0.000 | −0.061 | 0.000 | −0.040 | 0.071 | −0.017 | 0.095 | 0.057 |
2036–2065 Simulations | ||||||||
CanESM2 | 0.000 | −0.111 | −0.091 | −0.114 | −0.043 | −0.053 | −0.091 | −0.082 |
IPSL-CM5A | 0.000 | 0.018 | −0.040 | 0.007 | −0.077 | −0.024 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
Ensemble | 0.000 | −0.087 | 0.000 | −0.021 | 0.158 | 0.064 | −0.111 | −0.126 |
2070–2099 Simulations | ||||||||
CanESM2 | 0.000 | −0.150 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 0.000 | −0.130 | 0.000 | 0.045 |
IPSL-CM5A | 0.000 | −0.020 | 0.091 | 0.038 | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.083 |
Ensemble | 0.000 | −0.043 | 0.050 | 0.054 | 0.000 | −0.052 | 0.000 | 0.084 |
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Botai, C.M.; Botai, J.O.; Zwane, N.N.; Hayombe, P.; Wamiti, E.K.; Makgoale, T.; Murambadoro, M.D.; Adeola, A.M.; Ncongwane, K.P.; de Wit, J.P.; et al. Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate. Water 2020, 12, 3299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123299
Botai CM, Botai JO, Zwane NN, Hayombe P, Wamiti EK, Makgoale T, Murambadoro MD, Adeola AM, Ncongwane KP, de Wit JP, et al. Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate. Water. 2020; 12(12):3299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123299
Chicago/Turabian StyleBotai, Christina M., Joel O. Botai, Nosipho N. Zwane, Patrick Hayombe, Eric K. Wamiti, Thabo Makgoale, Miriam D. Murambadoro, Abiodun M. Adeola, Katlego P. Ncongwane, Jaco P. de Wit, and et al. 2020. "Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate" Water 12, no. 12: 3299. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123299