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Article

Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

by 1,2,* and 2
1
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UK
2
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(9), 1790; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091790
Received: 10 July 2019 / Revised: 22 August 2019 / Accepted: 24 August 2019 / Published: 28 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: DiCaSM hydrological model; climate change scenarios; land use change; Frome catchment; catchment water balance DiCaSM hydrological model; climate change scenarios; land use change; Frome catchment; catchment water balance
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MDPI and ACS Style

Afzal, M.; Ragab, R. Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale. Water 2019, 11, 1790. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091790

AMA Style

Afzal M, Ragab R. Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale. Water. 2019; 11(9):1790. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091790

Chicago/Turabian Style

Afzal, Muhammad, and Ragab Ragab. 2019. "Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale" Water 11, no. 9: 1790. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091790

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