Next Article in Journal
Farmers’ Attitudes to the Pricing of Natural Resources for Sustainability: GAP-Şanlıurfa Sampling of Turkey
Next Article in Special Issue
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea
Previous Article in Journal
Hydrogeological and Climatological Risks Perception in a Multi-Hazard Environment: The Case of Greece
Previous Article in Special Issue
Development of Threshold Levels and a Climate-Sensitivity Model of the Hydrological Regime of the High-Altitude Catchment of the Western Himalayas, Pakistan
Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

by Kun Jia 1,2, Yunfeng Ruan 3, Yanzhao Yang 1,2,* and Chao Zhang 1,2
1
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
School of Public Policy & Management, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(9), 1771; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091771
Received: 16 July 2019 / Revised: 14 August 2019 / Accepted: 22 August 2019 / Published: 25 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluating Hydrological Responses to Climate Change)
In this study, the performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was assessed using data from 1961 to 2005 by an improved score-based method, which adopts multiple criteria to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. The future precipitation change was also estimated based on the Delta method by selecting the submultiple model ensemble (SMME) in the near-term (2006–2050) and far future (2051–2095) periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that most GCMs can reasonably simulate the precipitation pattern of an annual cycle; however, all GCMs overestimated the precipitation over TP, especially in spring and summer. The GCMs generally provide good simulations of the temporal characteristics of precipitation, while they did not perform as well in reproducing its spatial distributions. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method, which adopts multiple criteria, provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. The future annual precipitation was projected to increase by ~6% in the near-term with respect to the period 1961–2005, whereas increases of 12.3% and 16.7% are expected in the far future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Similar spatial distributions of future precipitation changes can be seen in the near-term and far future periods under the two scenarios, and indicate that the most predominant increases occurred in the north of TP. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information on climate change, and for water resources and agricultural management in TP. View Full-Text
Keywords: GCMs; rank score; multiple criteria; projection; Tibetan Plateau GCMs; rank score; multiple criteria; projection; Tibetan Plateau
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Jia, K.; Ruan, Y.; Yang, Y.; Zhang, C. Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau. Water 2019, 11, 1771.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop