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Open AccessArticle

Inter-Comparison of Different Bayesian Model Averaging Modifications in Streamflow Simulation

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Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada
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School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada
3
United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, Hamilton, ON L8P 0A1, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(8), 1707; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081707
Received: 16 June 2019 / Revised: 9 August 2019 / Accepted: 13 August 2019 / Published: 16 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a popular method using the advantages of forecast ensemble to enhance the reliability and accuracy of predictions. The inherent assumptions of the classical BMA has led to different variants. However, there is not a comprehensive examination of how these solutions improve the original BMA in the context of streamflow simulation. In this study, a scenario-based analysis was conducted for assessment of various modifications and how they affect BMA results. The evaluated modifications included using various streamflow ensembles, data transformation procedures, distribution types, standard deviation forms, and optimization methods. We applied the proposed analysis in two data-poor watersheds located in northern Ontario, Canada. The results indicate that using more representative distribution types do not significantly improve BMA-derived results, while the positive effect of implementing non-constant variance on BMA probabilistic performance cannot be ignored. Also, higher reliability was obtained by applying a data transformation procedure; however, it can reduce the results’ sharpness significantly. Moreover, although considering many streamflow simulations as ensemble members does not always enhance BMA results, using different forcing precipitation scenarios besides multi-models led to better BMA-based probabilistic simulations in data-poor watersheds. Also, the reliability of the expectation-maximization algorithm in estimating BMA parameters was confirmed. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; multi-model ensemble hydrologic simulation; uncertainty analysis; Canada Bayesian model averaging; multi-model ensemble hydrologic simulation; uncertainty analysis; Canada
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Darbandsari, P.; Coulibaly, P. Inter-Comparison of Different Bayesian Model Averaging Modifications in Streamflow Simulation. Water 2019, 11, 1707.

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