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Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Considering the Hydrological Cycle and Crop Phenology in the Korean Peninsula

1
Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources, Korea University, Seoul 02481, Korea
2
Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02481, Korea
3
Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling and Observations, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA
4
Climate Analytics Team, APEC Climate Center, Busan 48058, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(5), 1105; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051105
Received: 7 April 2019 / Revised: 21 May 2019 / Accepted: 23 May 2019 / Published: 27 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Study for Ungauged Catchments—Data, Models and Uncertainties)
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Abstract

Hydrological changes attributable to global warming increase the severity and frequency of droughts, which in turn affect agriculture. Hence, we proposed the Standardized Agricultural Drought Index (SADI), which is a new drought index specialized for agriculture and crops, and evaluated current and expected droughts in the Korean Peninsula. The SADI applies crop phenology to the hydrological cycle, which is a basic element that assesses drought. The SADI of rice and maize was calculated using representative hydrological variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) of the crop growing season. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of SADI, the three-month Standardized Precipitation Index, which is a representative drought index, and rainfed crop yield were estimated together. The performance evaluation of SADI showed that the correlation between rainfed crop yield and SADI was very high compared with that of existing drought index. The results of the assessment of drought over the past three decades provided a good indication of a major drought period and differentiated the results for crops and regions. The results of two future scenarios showed common drought risks in the western plains of North Korea. Successfully validated SADIs could be effectively applied to agricultural drought assessments in light of future climate change, and would be a good example of the water-food nexus approach. View Full-Text
Keywords: agricultural drought; Standardized Agricultural Drought Index; crop phenology; hydrological cycle; climate change; Korean Peninsula; rice and maize agricultural drought; Standardized Agricultural Drought Index; crop phenology; hydrological cycle; climate change; Korean Peninsula; rice and maize
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Lim, C.-H.; Kim, S.H.; Chun, J.A.; Kafatos, M.C.; Lee, W.-K. Assessment of Agricultural Drought Considering the Hydrological Cycle and Crop Phenology in the Korean Peninsula. Water 2019, 11, 1105.

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