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Gridded Flash Flood Risk Index Coupling Statistical Approaches and TOPLATS Land Surface Model for Mountainous Areas

1
Department of Research & Development, Hydrology Engineering & Consulting Center, Korea Inc, Seoul 08380, Korea
2
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(3), 504; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030504
Received: 20 February 2019 / Accepted: 5 March 2019 / Published: 11 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

This study presents the development of a statistical flash flood risk index model, which is currently operating in research mode for flash flood risk forecasting in ungauged mountainous areas. The grid-based statistical flash flood risk index, with temporal and spatial resolutions of 1 h and 1 km, respectively, has been developed to simulate the flash flood risk index leading to flash flood casualties using hourly rainfall, surface flow, and soil water content in the previous 6 h. The statistical index model employs factor analysis and multi-linear regression to analyze its gridded hydrological components that are obtained from the TOPMODEL-based Land Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (TOPLATS). The performance of the developed index model has been evaluated in estimating flash flooding in ungauged mountain valleys and small streams. Numerical results show that the approach simulated 38 flash flood catastrophes in the Seoul Capital Region with 71% accuracy; therefore, this approach is potentially adequate for flash flood risk forecasting. View Full-Text
Keywords: statistical flash flood forecast; factor analysis; distributed hydrological model; ungauged mountainous area statistical flash flood forecast; factor analysis; distributed hydrological model; ungauged mountainous area
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Lee, B.-J.; Kim, S. Gridded Flash Flood Risk Index Coupling Statistical Approaches and TOPLATS Land Surface Model for Mountainous Areas. Water 2019, 11, 504.

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