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Water 2019, 11(3), 475; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030475

Assessing the Impacts of Univariate and Bivariate Flood Frequency Approaches to Flood Risk Accounting for Reservoir Operation

1
School of Engineering, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China
2
Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
3
College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
4
School of Resources and Environment, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 4 January 2019 / Revised: 23 February 2019 / Accepted: 28 February 2019 / Published: 6 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

Flood frequency analysis plays a fundamental role in dam planning, reservoir operation, and risk assessment. However, conventional univariate flood frequency analysis carried out by flood peak inflow or volume does not account for the dependence between flood properties. In this paper, we proposed an integrated approach to estimate reservoir risk by combining the copula-based bivariate flood frequency (peak and volume) and reservoir routing. Through investigating the chain reaction of “flood frequency—reservoir operation-flood risk”, this paper demonstrated how to simulate flood hydrographs using different frequency definitions (copula “Or” and “And” scenario), and how these definitions affect flood risks. The approach was applied to the Meishan reservoir in central China. A set of flood hydrographs with 0.01 frequency under copula “Or” and “And” definitions were constructed, respectively. Upstream and downstream flood risks incorporating reservoir operation were calculated for each scenario. Comparisons between flood risks from univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysis showed that bivariate flood frequency analysis produced less diversity in the results, and thus the results are more reliable in risk assessment. More importantly, the peak-volume combinations in a bivariate approach can be adjusted according to certain prediction accuracy, providing a flexible estimation of real-time flood risk under different prediction accuracies and safety requirements. View Full-Text
Keywords: bivariate flood frequency; copula distribution; reservoir operation; risk assessment; Meishan reservoir bivariate flood frequency; copula distribution; reservoir operation; risk assessment; Meishan reservoir
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Zhou, T.; Liu, Z.; Jin, J.; Hu, H. Assessing the Impacts of Univariate and Bivariate Flood Frequency Approaches to Flood Risk Accounting for Reservoir Operation. Water 2019, 11, 475.

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