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Effects of ENSO on Temperature, Precipitation, and Potential Evapotranspiration of North India’s Monsoon: An Analysis of Trend and Entropy

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction, University of Nevada, 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4015, USA
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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901-6603, USA
3
Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(2), 189; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020189
Received: 17 December 2018 / Revised: 14 January 2019 / Accepted: 18 January 2019 / Published: 23 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydroclimatic Variability at Local, Regional, and Global Scales)
The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the north Indian temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) change patterns were evaluated during the monsoon season across the last century. Trends and shifts in 146 districts were assessed using nonparametric statistical tests. To quantify their temporal variation, the concept of apportionment entropy was applied to both the annual and seasonal scales. Results suggest that the El Niño years played a greater role in causing hydro-climatological changes compared to the La Niña or neutral years. El Niño was more influential in causing shifts compared to trends. For certain districts, a phase change in ENSO reversed the trend/shift direction. The century-wide analysis suggested that the vast majority of the districts experienced significant decreasing trends/shifts in temperature and PET. However, precipitation experienced both increasing and decreasing trends/shifts based on the location of the districts. Entropy results suggested a lower apportionment of precipitation compared to the other variables, indicating an intermittent deviation of precipitation pattern from the generic trend. The findings may help understand the effects of ENSO on the hydro-climatological variables during the monsoon season. Practitioners may find the results useful as monsoon is the most important season for India causing climate extremes. View Full-Text
Keywords: Indian monsoon; ENSO; North Indian climate; trend; shift; entropy; Indian climate extremes Indian monsoon; ENSO; North Indian climate; trend; shift; entropy; Indian climate extremes
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Tamaddun, K.A.; Kalra, A.; Bernardez, M.; Ahmad, S. Effects of ENSO on Temperature, Precipitation, and Potential Evapotranspiration of North India’s Monsoon: An Analysis of Trend and Entropy. Water 2019, 11, 189.

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