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Open AccessArticle

Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea

School of Architectural, Civil, Environmental, and Energy Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea
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Water 2019, 11(10), 1982; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101982
Received: 23 July 2019 / Revised: 3 September 2019 / Accepted: 21 September 2019 / Published: 23 September 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance)
Non-point source (NPS) pollution is a primary cause of water pollution in the Saemangeum watershed in South Korea. The changes in NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed for an 81-year period (2019–2099) were simulated and analyzed by applying the soil and water assessment tool. Six climate model (BCC-CSM1–1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-CC, INM-CM4, and MIROC-ESM) outputs using representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were obtained from the South Korean Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center. Simulated streamflow and water quality were evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and coefficient of determination (R2). The model satisfactorily simulated streamflow with positive NSE values and R2 > 0.5. Based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), gradual increases of 70.9 to 233.8 mm and 1.7 to 5.7 °C in annual precipitation and temperature, respectively, are likely for two time periods (2019–2059 and 2060–2099). Additionally, the expected future average annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and total phosphorus showed changes of 5% to 43%, 3% to 40%, and −55% to 15%, respectively, whereas the expected future average annual and monthly total nitrogen showed decreases of −5% to −27%. Future NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed should be managed according to different climate change scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; NPS pollution; Saemangeum; SWAT climate change; NPS pollution; Saemangeum; SWAT
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MDPI and ACS Style

Li, T.; Kim, G. Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea. Water 2019, 11, 1982. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101982

AMA Style

Li T, Kim G. Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea. Water. 2019; 11(10):1982. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101982

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Ting; Kim, Gwangseob. 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea" Water 11, no. 10: 1982. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101982

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