Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Tripoli Aquifer Characterization
2.2. Mathematical and Numerical Model
2.3. Global Change Processes and Model Configuration
- The sea level: The sea level has been estimated to raise, on average, by 10–20 cm in the last century [5]. Based on [25], the decrease in atmospheric pressure is the main reason for sea level rise. The snow and ice melt, and the temperature elevation will impact the studied zone. The sensitivity study was implemented for four levels of sea rise: (a) 50 cm, (b) 100 cm, (c) 150 cm, and (d) 200 cm. This change affects the parameter h0 in the model. By changing this parameter in Equation (5), the impact of the sea level rise is considered. The impact on the shoreline is not considered here.
- The groundwater recharge: The groundwater recharge is also subject to climate change. The impact of climate change on the groundwater recharge has been assessed in [15]. The forecasts show a huge global variability in the groundwater recharge. For example, the recharge is expected to increase in some regions in the north of Brazil to about 70% from 2008 to 2050. On the other hand, the recharge is expected to decrease to about 30% in the north of China for the same period. This variability will induce floods in some regions while causing coastal aquifers salinization in others. The aquifer recharge is expressed via the incoming flux from precipitation and snow melt. Because the incoming flux can increase in some years and decrease in other depending on the quantity of snow melt in each year, the change of the incoming flux is calculated by multiplying it by a coefficient of 0.8 up to 1.2 with a step of 0.05.
- The extraction rate: According to the United Nations Environment program (UNEP), 75% of the global population will be living in coastal areas by 2020. This will increase the need for freshwater in these zones, and because the main portion of the available freshwater is underground water, the extraction rate will increase in coming years. The extraction rates depend on the economic activities in the area. In the case of the Tripoli aquifer, the main use is domestic. As presented in the site description, a rate of 250 liters/capita/day for all combined activities is considered.
2.4. Evaluation Criterion
3. Results
3.1. Sensitivity Analysis
3.1.1. Impact of Sea Level Rise
3.1.2. Impact of Inflow Freshwater Flux
3.1.3. Impact of the Extraction Rate
3.2. Impact of Future Scenarios
3.2.1. Impact of Projected Sea Level Rise
3.2.2. Impact of Climate Trends on Recharge
3.2.3. Impact of Demographic Growth
3.2.4. Impact of Syrian Refugee Crisis
3.3. Contribution of Each Projection to Global Change
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Sea Level Rise (cm) | Minimal Advance (m) | Maximal Advance (m) |
---|---|---|
50 | 1.3 | 28 |
100 | 2.8 | 44.8 |
150 | 4.2 | 76.4 |
200 | 5.3 | 98 |
Rate Change of Flux | Minimal Advance (m) | Maximal Advance (m) |
---|---|---|
−20% | 80 | 230 |
−15% | 50 | 165 |
−10% | 29 | 105 |
−5% | 9 | 50 |
+5% | 15 | 65 |
+10% | 20 | 90 |
+15% | 36 | 130 |
+20% | 50 | 160 |
Multiplicative Coefficient | Median Advancement (m) |
---|---|
1.25 | 13 |
1.5 | 17 |
1.75 | 26 |
2 | 35 |
Year | Number of Inhabitants without Considering the Migration | Number of İnhabitants Considering the Migration |
---|---|---|
2013 | 87,500 | 127,500 |
2018 | 95,000 | 145,000 |
2023 | 102,500 | 156,500 |
2028 | 110,000 | 167,000 |
2033 | 120,000 | 180,000 |
Year | Without Refugees | With Refugees | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Maximal Advance | Median Advance | Maximal Advance | Median Advance | |
2013 | 14 | 2.5 | 50 | 15 |
2018 | 20 | 5.5 | 64 | 24 |
2023 | 26 | 8.5 | 75 | 32 |
2028 | 32 | 12 | 87 | 37 |
2033 | 41 | 16 | 102 | 43 |
Year | Sea Rise | Change of Inflow | Extraction Rate | Total | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
m | % | m | % | m | % | m | |
2013 | 0.10 | 0.7% | 10 | 79.3% | 2.50 | 19.8% | 12.60 |
2018 | 0.25 | 0.9% | 22 | 79.2% | 5.50 | 19.8% | 27.75 |
2023 | 0.45 | 1.1% | 31 | 77.5% | 8.50 | 21.2% | 39.95 |
2028 | 0.63 | 1.1% | 43 | 77.2% | 12.00 | 21.5% | 55.63 |
2033 | 0.75 | 1% | 54 | 76.3% | 16.00 | 22.6% | 70.75 |
Year | Sea Rise | Change of Inflow | Extraction Rate | Total | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
m | % | m | % | m | % | m | |
2013 | 0.10 | 0.3% | 10.00 | 39.8% | 15.00 | 59.7% | 25.10 |
2018 | 0.25 | 0.5% | 22.00 | 48.6% | 24.00 | 53% | 46.25 |
2023 | 0.45 | 0.7% | 31.00 | 48.8% | 32.00 | 50.4% | 63.45 |
2028 | 0.63 | 0.7% | 43.00 | 52% | 37.00 | 44.7% | 80.63 |
2033 | 0.75 | 0.7% | 59.00 | 57% | 43.00 | 42.1% | 102.75 |
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Kalaoun, O.; Jazar, M.; Al Bitar, A. Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer. Water 2018, 10, 973. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10080973
Kalaoun O, Jazar M, Al Bitar A. Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer. Water. 2018; 10(8):973. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10080973
Chicago/Turabian StyleKalaoun, Omar, Mustapha Jazar, and Ahmad Al Bitar. 2018. "Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer" Water 10, no. 8: 973. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10080973
APA StyleKalaoun, O., Jazar, M., & Al Bitar, A. (2018). Assessing the Contribution of Demographic Growth, Climate Change, and the Refugee Crisis on Seawater Intrusion in the Tripoli Aquifer. Water, 10(8), 973. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10080973