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Water 2018, 10(8), 1016; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081016

Improved Mixed Distribution Model Considering Historical Extraordinary Floods under Changing Environment

1
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
2
State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
3
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 4 June 2018 / Revised: 20 July 2018 / Accepted: 24 July 2018 / Published: 31 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Processes under Environmental Change)
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Abstract

Historical extraordinary floods are an important factor in non-stationary flood frequency analysis and they may occur at any time, regardless of whether the environment is changing or not. Based on mixed distribution (MD) modeling, this paper proposed an improved mixed distribution (IMD) model to consider the discontinuity and non-stationarity of flood samples simultaneously, which adds historical extraordinary floods in both sub-series divided by a change point. As a case study, the annual maximum peak discharge and volume series of Ankang hydrological station, located in the upper Hanjiang River Basin of China, were selected to identify non-stationarity by using the variation diagnosis system. MD and IMD were used to fit the flood characteristic series and a genetic algorithm was employed to estimate the optimal parameters. Compared with the design flood values fitted by the stationary Pearson type-III distribution, the results computed by IMD decreased at low return periods and increased at high return periods, with the difference varying from −6.67% to 7.19%. The results highlighted that although the design flood values of IMD are slightly larger than those of MD with different return periods, IMD provided a better result than MD. IMD provides a new perspective for non-stationary flood frequency analysis. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood frequency analysis; mixed distribution; historical extraordinary flood; change point; non-stationarity flood frequency analysis; mixed distribution; historical extraordinary flood; change point; non-stationarity
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Li, J.; Zheng, Y.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, T.; Feng, P.; Engel, B.A. Improved Mixed Distribution Model Considering Historical Extraordinary Floods under Changing Environment. Water 2018, 10, 1016.

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