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Open AccessArticle

Multi-Source Uncertainty Analysis in Simulating Floodplain Inundation under Climate Change

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Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35392 Giessen, Germany
2
Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstraße 3, 35390 Giessen, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(6), 809; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060809
Received: 30 May 2018 / Revised: 14 June 2018 / Accepted: 15 June 2018 / Published: 19 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Floodplains are highly complex and dynamic systems in terms of their hydrology. Thus, they harbor highly specialized floodplain plant species depending on different inundation characteristics. Climate change will most likely alter those characteristics. This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on the inundation characteristics of a floodplain of the Rhine River in Hesse, Germany. We report on the cascading uncertainty introduced through climate projections, climate model structure, and parameter uncertainty. The established modeling framework integrates projections of two general circulation models (GCMs), three emission scenarios, a rainfall–runoff model, and a coupled surface water–groundwater model. Our results indicate large spatial and quantitative uncertainties in the simulated inundation characteristics, which are mainly attributed to the GCMs. Overall, a shift in the inundation pattern, possible in both directions, and an increase in inundation extent are simulated. This can cause significant changes in the habitats of species adapted to these highly-endangered ecosystems. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; rainfall–runoff model; inundation; floodplain; surface water–groundwater model; (catchment modeling framework) CMF; cascading uncertainty; Rhine River climate change; rainfall–runoff model; inundation; floodplain; surface water–groundwater model; (catchment modeling framework) CMF; cascading uncertainty; Rhine River
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Maier, N.; Breuer, L.; Chamorro, A.; Kraft, P.; Houska, T. Multi-Source Uncertainty Analysis in Simulating Floodplain Inundation under Climate Change. Water 2018, 10, 809.

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