Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (i)
- Assessing LULCC in the Kilombero Catchment since the 1970s;
- (ii)
- Setting up a distributed hydrological model suitable to simulate impacts of LULCC;
- (iii)
- Analyzing the impacts of LULCC on water balance components in the catchment.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Site
2.2. Input Data
2.3. Model Description
2.4. Model Setup and Evaluation
3. Results
3.1. Model Calibration and Validation
3.2. Spatio-Temporal Analysis
3.3. Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impact on Water Resources
4. Discussion
4.1. Model Evaluation and Spatio-Temporal Analysis
4.2. Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data Set | Resolution/Scale | Source | Required Parameters |
---|---|---|---|
DEM | 90 m | SRTM [56] | Topographical data |
Soil map | 1 km | FAO [41] | Soil classes and physical properties |
Land use maps | 60 m (1970s) 30 m (1994, 2004, 2014) | Landsat pre-Collection Level-1 [47], Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI Surface Reflectance Level-2 Science Products [49,50], SRTM [56] | Land cover and use classes |
Precipitation | Daily | Personal communication: RBWB, University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) | Rainfall |
Climate | Daily/0.44° | CORDEX Africa [45] | Temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed |
Discharge | Daily (1958–1970) | RBWB [62] | Discharge |
GCM | RCM | Institution | URL |
---|---|---|---|
CanESM2 | CanRCM4_r2 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) | http://climate-modelling.canada.ca/ |
CanESM2 | RCA4_v1 | Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/ |
CNRM-CM5 | CCLM4-8-17_v1 | Climate Limited-area Modelling Community (CLMcom) | https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/ |
EC-EARTH | CCLM4-8-17_v1 | Climate Limited-area Modelling Community (CLMcom) | https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/ |
EC-EARTH | RCA4_v1 | Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/ |
MIROC5 | RCA4_v1 | Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/ |
Soil Type | Proportional Area (%) | LULC Class (1970s Land Use) | Proportional Area (%) | Slope Classes | Proportional Area (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Haplic Acrisol | 30.82% | Savanna | 45.30% | 0–2% | 22.45% |
Eutric Fluvisol | 14.77% | Range-Grasses | 23.49% | 2%–5% | 12.09% |
Humic Nitisol | 13.14% | Forest-Mixed | 22.05% | 5%–8% | 11.66% |
Ferric Lixisol | 13.05% | Forest-Evergreen | 6.81% | 8%–12% | 13.96% |
Ferric Acrisol | 9.08% | Agricultural Land | 1.20% | >12% | 39.85% |
Humic Acrisol | 5.73% | Water | 0.95% | ||
Albic Arenosol | 2.75% | Barren | 0.20% | ||
Eutric Leptosol | 0.59% |
Rank | Parameter | Description | Final Range | Method |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | GWQMN.gw | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for return flow to occur (mm). | 1400–2200 | v |
2 | ALPHA_BF.gw | Base flow alpha factor (days). | 0.15–0.26 | v |
3 | GW_REVAP.gw | Groundwater “revap” coefficient. | 0.15–0.2 | v |
4 | SURLAG.bsn | Surface runoff lag coefficient. | 2.8–5.3 | v |
5 | GW_DELAY.gw | Groundwater delay time (days). | 4–30 | v |
6 | SOL_K().sol | Saturated hydraulic conductivity (mm/h). | 0.4–0.7 | r |
7 | RCHRG_DP.gw | Deep aquifer percolation fraction. | 0.31–0.37 | v |
8 | SOL_Z().sol | Depth from soil surface to bottom of layer (mm). | 0.35–0.5 | r |
9 | SOL_AWC().sol | Available water capacity of the soil layer (mm H2O/mm soil). | −0.1–0.13 | r |
10 | R__OV_N.hru | Manning’s “n” value for overland flow. | 0.1–0.2 | r |
11 | R__CN2.mgt | SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II. | −0.5–(−0.35) | r |
12 | CH_K1.sub | Effective hydraulic conductivity in the tributary channel (mm/h). | 65–80 | v |
13 | ESCO.hru | Soil evaporation compensation factor. | 0–0.1 | v |
14 | CH_K2.rte | Effective hydraulic conductivity in the main channel (mm/h) | 100–130 | v |
15 | REVAPMN.gw | Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for “revap” to occur (mm). | 13–30 | v |
16 | EPCO.hru | Plant uptake compensation factor. | 0.9–1 | v |
17 | PLAPS | Precipitation lapse rate (mm H2O/km). | 130 | v |
18 | TLAPS | Temperature lapse rate (°C/km). | −6 | v |
Simulation Period(Daily) | P-Factor | R-Factor | R2 | NSE | PBIAS | KGE | RSR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration (1958–1965) | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.3 | 0.93 | 0.38 |
Validation (1966–1970) | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 2.5 | 0.89 | 0.45 |
Water Balance Components | in (mm) |
---|---|
Precipitation | 1344 |
Actual evapotranspiration | 788 |
Potential evapotranspiration | 1380 |
Surface runoff | 43 |
Lateral flow | 58 |
Base flow | 209 |
Recharge to the deep aquifer | 242 |
© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Näschen, K.; Diekkrüger, B.; Leemhuis, C.; Steinbach, S.; Seregina, L.S.; Thonfeld, F.; Van der Linden, R. Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania. Water 2018, 10, 599. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050599
Näschen K, Diekkrüger B, Leemhuis C, Steinbach S, Seregina LS, Thonfeld F, Van der Linden R. Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania. Water. 2018; 10(5):599. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050599
Chicago/Turabian StyleNäschen, Kristian, Bernd Diekkrüger, Constanze Leemhuis, Stefanie Steinbach, Larisa S. Seregina, Frank Thonfeld, and Roderick Van der Linden. 2018. "Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania" Water 10, no. 5: 599. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050599
APA StyleNäschen, K., Diekkrüger, B., Leemhuis, C., Steinbach, S., Seregina, L. S., Thonfeld, F., & Van der Linden, R. (2018). Hydrological Modeling in Data-Scarce Catchments: The Kilombero Floodplain in Tanzania. Water, 10(5), 599. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050599