Next Article in Journal
Sensitivity Analyses for Modeling Evolving Reactivity of Granular Iron for the Treatment of Trichloroethylene
Previous Article in Journal
Shock-Capturing Boussinesq Modelling of Broken Wave Characteristics Near a Vertical Seawall
Open AccessArticle

Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework

1
School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Waihuan Xi Road, Guangzhou 510006, China
2
Urban Water Systems Section, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby, Denmark
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(12), 1877; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121877
Received: 30 October 2018 / Revised: 13 December 2018 / Accepted: 14 December 2018 / Published: 19 December 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in the Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk)
  |  
PDF [2986 KB, uploaded 19 December 2018]
  |     |  

Abstract

Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk assessment; decision-making; uncertainty; sensitivity; climate change adaptation; urban drainage management flood risk assessment; decision-making; uncertainty; sensitivity; climate change adaptation; urban drainage management
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhou, Q.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework. Water 2018, 10, 1877.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top