Next Article in Journal
Long-Term GIS Analysis of Seaside Impacts Associated to Infrastructures and Urbanization and Spatial Correlation with Coastal Vulnerability in a Mediterranean Area
Next Article in Special Issue
Studying Inertia Effects in Open Channel Flow Using Saint-Venant Equations
Previous Article in Journal
Organic Amendments Influence Soil Water Depletion, Root Distribution, and Water Productivity of Summer Maize in the Guanzhong Plain of Northwest China
Previous Article in Special Issue
An Integrated Modeling Approach to Study the Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions and Influence of Temporal Damping Effects on the Hydrological Cycle in the Miho Catchment in South Korea
Review

Uncertainty Estimation Using the Glue and Bayesian Approaches in Flood Estimation: A case Study—Ba River, Vietnam

1
Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources, Thuy Loi University, Hanoi 116705, Vietnam
2
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Ultimo NSW 2007, Australia
3
Faculty of Natural Geography, Hanoi Education University, Hanoi 123106, Vietnam
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(11), 1641; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111641
Received: 20 September 2018 / Revised: 18 October 2018 / Accepted: 1 November 2018 / Published: 13 November 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Catchment Modelling)
In the last few decades tremendous progress has been made in the use of catchment models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. A common application involves the use of these models to predict flows at catchment outputs. However, the outputs predicted by these models are often deterministic because they focused only on the most probable forecast without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This paper uses Bayesian and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approaches to estimate uncertainty in catchment modelling parameter values and uncertainty in design flow estimates. Testing of join probability of both these estimates has been conducted for a monsoon catchment in Vietnam. The paper focuses on computational efficiency and the differences in results, regardless of the philosophies and mathematical rigor of both methods. It was found that the application of GLUE and Bayesian techniques resulted in parameter values that were statistically different. The design flood quantiles estimated by the GLUE method were less scattered than those resulting from the Bayesian approach when using a closer threshold value (1 standard deviation departed from the mean). More studies are required to evaluate the impact of threshold in GLUE on design flood estimation. View Full-Text
Keywords: design flood quantiles; hydrology; flood frequency analysis; continuous simulation; Bayesian approach; GLUE approach; catchment modelling design flood quantiles; hydrology; flood frequency analysis; continuous simulation; Bayesian approach; GLUE approach; catchment modelling
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Cu Thi, P.; Ball, J.E.; Dao, N.H. Uncertainty Estimation Using the Glue and Bayesian Approaches in Flood Estimation: A case Study—Ba River, Vietnam. Water 2018, 10, 1641. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111641

AMA Style

Cu Thi P, Ball JE, Dao NH. Uncertainty Estimation Using the Glue and Bayesian Approaches in Flood Estimation: A case Study—Ba River, Vietnam. Water. 2018; 10(11):1641. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111641

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cu Thi, Phuong, James E. Ball, and Ngoc H. Dao. 2018. "Uncertainty Estimation Using the Glue and Bayesian Approaches in Flood Estimation: A case Study—Ba River, Vietnam" Water 10, no. 11: 1641. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111641

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop