An Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in the Inner Mongolian Plateau: Spatial-Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Implications
1.1. Climate Change in China
1.2. The Inner Mongolian Plateau: Climate Issues, Contexts and Problems
1.3. The Influence of Precipitation Variations to Agriculture
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data, Quality Control, and Homogeneity Testing
2.2. Climate Extreme Indices and Analytical Methods
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Temporal Variation of Precipitation Extremes in Inner Mongolian Plateau
3.2. Spatial Variation of Precipitation Extremes in Inner Mongolian Plateau
3.3. Effects Factors of Precipitation Extremes
3.3.1. Elevation, Longitude and Latitude
3.3.2. Annual Total Precipitation
3.3.3. Topography and Atmospheric Factors
3.4. Influences of Precipitation Extremes on Agriculture in Inner Mongolian Plateau and Science-Based Future Policy-Making
3.4.1. Influences of Precipitation Extremes on Agriculture in Inner Mongolian Plateau
- Summer yields of crops such as wheat may be reduced.
- The flexibility in respect of when crops are harvested may be reduced.
- A potential increase in the tensions between the need to grow crops to attend food needs on the one hand, and to manage green areas on the other.
3.4.2. Science Based Future Policy-Making for Grassland Protection
- Creating some new technologies to enhance the ability of healthy soils to regulate water resource dynamics is beneficial for maintenance of grass and livestock productivity under various conditions of precipitation extremes.
- Encouraging farmers and ranchers to choose drought and heat stress-resistant crops and livestock to improve their ability to cope with precipitation extremes.
- Multiple-benefit adaptation strategies should be recommended in regional planning, such as developing the resilience of grassland to precipitation extremes, promoting the development of sustainable agriculture.
- Grassland protection and education promoting institutes should be built, since pastoralists in the IMP are the implement actors of grassland protection, but most of them are poorly educated.
- Monitoring or even predicting the climate extremes, and then guiding herdsmen´s engagement in agricultural activities.
- Adjust market demand to encourage herdsmen to transfer from grazing to ecotourism for their livelihoods.
- Improving their awareness of environmental protection.
- Strictly controlling the number of livestock according to coordinated development between grass and livestock.
- Monitoring and recording climate extremes effects on the grassland and livestock productivity, which is the basis for the future research.
- Temporally, all precipitation extremes, except R0.5, R10, and PRCPTOT, decreased in the IMP between 1959 and 2014, and most of the changes were non-significant. Compared with the other wet and decreased indices, the dry index decreases with larger magnitude, which indicate that the IMP will be dominated by less dry conditions during the study interval.
- Spatially, precipitation extremes showed spatial differences, and the dry area, such as the western area of IMP, would become slightly wetness by suffering more extreme precipitation.
Conflicts of Interest
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|Rx1day||Max 1-day precipitation amount||Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation||mm|
|Rx5day||Max 5-day precipitation amount||Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation||mm|
|SDII||Simple daily intensity index||Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days (defined as PRCP ≧ 1.0 mm) in the year||mm/day|
|R10||Number of heavy precipitation days||Annual count of days when PRCP ≧ 10 mm||day|
|R20||Number of very heavy precipitation days||Annual count of days when PRCP ≧ 20 mm||day|
|R0.5||Number of days above 0.5 mm||Annual count of days when PRCP ≧ 0.5 mm, nn is user defined threshold||day|
|CDD||Consecutive dry days||Maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1 mm||day|
|CWD||Consecutive wet days||Maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≧ 1 mm||day|
|R95p||Very wet days precipitation||Annual total PRCP when RR > 95th percentile||mm|
|R99p||Extremely wet days precipitation||Annual total PRCP when RR > 99th percentile||mm|
|PRCPTOT||Annual total wet-day precipitation||Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR ≧ 1 mm)||mm|
|Elevation (m)||Longitude (°E)||latitude (°N)|
|CDD||Y = 0.006X + 127.275 (R2 = 0.008)||Y = −2.813X + 454.084 (R2 = 0.401)||Y = −3.302X + 277.547 (R2 = 0.156)|
|CWD||Y = −0.001X + 4.804 (R2 = 0.160)||Y = 0.133X − 11.414 (R2 = 0.677)||Y = 0.194X − 4.686 (R2 = 0.403)|
|PRCPTOT||Y = −0.127X + 397.961 (R2 = 0.235)||Y = 14.781X − 1418.928 (R2 = 0.683)||Y = 16.112X − 437.14 (R2 = 0.228)|
|R10||Y = −0.004X + 12.128 (R2 = 0.227)||Y = 0.474X − 46.146 (R2 = 0.661)||Y = 0.532X − 15.327 (R2 = 0.234)|
|R20||Y = −0.002X + 4.965 (R2 = 0.340)||Y = 0.193X − 19.276 (R2 = 0.605)||Y = 0.187X − 5.424 (R2 = 0.160)|
|R0.5||Y = −0.010X + 56.619 (R2 = 0.068)||Y = 1.90X − 171.385 (R2 = 0.491)||Y = 2.952X − 83.627 (R2 = 0.334)|
|R95p||Y = −0.037X + 105.288 (R2 = 0.288)||Y = 3.797X − 365.455 (R2 = 0.663)||Y = 3.840X − 100.107 (R2 = 0.191)|
|R99p||Y = −0.010X + 31.034 (R2 = 0.194)||Y = 1.090X − 103.515 (R2 = 0.518)||Y = 0.965X − 21.372 (R2 = 0.114)|
|RX1day||Y = −0.015X + 52.573 (R2 = 0.285)||Y = 1.380X − 119.845 (R2 = 0.539)||Y = 0.936X − 3.325 (R2 = 0.070)|
|RX5day||Y = −0.027X + 84.237 (R2 = 0.329)||Y = 2.574X − 236.854 (R2 = 0.646)||Y = 2.295X − 43.493 (R2 = 0.145)|
|SDII||Y = −0.001X + 8.494 (R2 = 0.200)||Y = 0.151X−10.279 (R2 = 0.422)||Y = 0.071X + 3.801 (R2 = 0.026)|
|Annual total precipitation||−0.737 **||0.892 **||0.998 **||0.995 **||0.939 **||0.770 **||0.975 **||0.886 **||0.875 **||0.937 **||0.802 **|
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Li, C.; Leal Filho, W.; Wang, J.; Fudjumdjum, H.; Fedoruk, M.; Hu, R.; Yin, S.; Bao, Y.; Yu, S.; Hunt, J. An Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in the Inner Mongolian Plateau: Spatial-Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Implications. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 322. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080322
Li C, Leal Filho W, Wang J, Fudjumdjum H, Fedoruk M, Hu R, Yin S, Bao Y, Yu S, Hunt J. An Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in the Inner Mongolian Plateau: Spatial-Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Implications. Atmosphere. 2018; 9(8):322. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080322Chicago/Turabian Style
Li, Chunlan, Walter Leal Filho, Jun Wang, Hubert Fudjumdjum, Mariia Fedoruk, Richa Hu, Shan Yin, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yu, and Julian Hunt. 2018. "An Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in the Inner Mongolian Plateau: Spatial-Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Implications" Atmosphere 9, no. 8: 322. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080322