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Volume 16
Issue 11
10.3390/atmos16111267
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024

by
Noor AlShamsi
1,*,
Ahmed Al Kaabi
1,
Abdulla Al Mandous
1,
Omar Al Yazeedi
1,
Alya Al Mazrouei
1,
Micheal Weston
1,
Andrew VanderMerwe
2,
Mahmoud Hussein
1,
Esra AlNaqbi
3,
Ahmad Al Kamali
1,
Sufian Farah
1,
Mahra Al Ghafli
1 and
Brandt Maxwell
4
1
Research and Weather Enhancement Department, National Center of Meteorology, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 4815, United Arab Emirates
2
Technical Services Department, National Center of Meteorology, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 4815, United Arab Emirates
3
Meteorology Department, National Center of Meteorology, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 4815, United Arab Emirates
4
Independent Researcher, San Diego, CA 92126, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2025, 16(11), 1267; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111267
Submission received: 27 August 2025 / Revised: 28 October 2025 / Accepted: 4 November 2025 / Published: 7 November 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
Versions Notes

Abstract

An intense rainfall event affected the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 15 and 16 April 2024. This study investigated the atmospheric conditions responsible for the formation of large convective storms during this period. Specifically, we analyzed the atmospheric dynamics and large-scale flow that led to the development of a cut-off low-pressure system (COL) over the Arabian Peninsula on 15 April 2024, triggering a two-day period of intense precipitation over the UAE. Our findings indicate that the storms were driven by upper-air instability, a prolonged moisture influx from the monsoon system into the UAE, and the presence of a surface front. Some regions recorded over 200 mm of precipitation within this period, resulting in flash floods, infrastructure disruptions, and significant impacts on the local population. The unusual development of the rainfall event was linked to the displacement of the subtropical jet (STJ), which facilitated the formation and intensification of a COL traversing the region.
Keywords: cut-off low pressure; upper-level trough; Indian monsoon; low-level jet; flooding; subtropical jet; Arabian Peninsula; desert areas; surface front; United Arab Emirates cut-off low pressure; upper-level trough; Indian monsoon; low-level jet; flooding; subtropical jet; Arabian Peninsula; desert areas; surface front; United Arab Emirates

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MDPI and ACS Style

AlShamsi, N.; Al Kaabi, A.; Al Mandous, A.; Al Yazeedi, O.; Al Mazrouei, A.; Weston, M.; VanderMerwe, A.; Hussein, M.; AlNaqbi, E.; Al Kamali, A.; et al. Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 1267. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111267

AMA Style

AlShamsi N, Al Kaabi A, Al Mandous A, Al Yazeedi O, Al Mazrouei A, Weston M, VanderMerwe A, Hussein M, AlNaqbi E, Al Kamali A, et al. Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(11):1267. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111267

Chicago/Turabian Style

AlShamsi, Noor, Ahmed Al Kaabi, Abdulla Al Mandous, Omar Al Yazeedi, Alya Al Mazrouei, Micheal Weston, Andrew VanderMerwe, Mahmoud Hussein, Esra AlNaqbi, Ahmad Al Kamali, and et al. 2025. "Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024" Atmosphere 16, no. 11: 1267. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111267

APA Style

AlShamsi, N., Al Kaabi, A., Al Mandous, A., Al Yazeedi, O., Al Mazrouei, A., Weston, M., VanderMerwe, A., Hussein, M., AlNaqbi, E., Al Kamali, A., Farah, S., Al Ghafli, M., & Maxwell, B. (2025). Synoptic-Scale Forcing and Its Role in a Rare Severe Rainfall Event over the UAE: A Case Study of 15–16 April 2024. Atmosphere, 16(11), 1267. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111267

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