Integrating Modelling and Expert Knowledge for Evaluating Current and Future Scenario of Large Cardamom Crop in Eastern Nepal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Expert Knowledge-Based Mapping
2.2.1. Participatory Mapping
2.2.2. Uttis (Alnus nepalensis) Mapping Using High-Resolution Satellite Data
2.3. Species Modelling
2.3.1. Environmental Variables and Species Occurrence Records
2.3.2. Spatial Modelling and Statistical Analysis
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. Participatory Mapping of Large Cardamom
3.2. Uttis (Alnus nepalensis) Cover Mapping and Delineation of Accurate Large Cardamom Map
3.3. Current Suitable Habitat
3.4. Current Cardamom Cultivation and Habitat Suitability Analysis
3.5. Suitable Habitat under Climate Change Scenerio
3.6. Projected Changes in the Suitable Habitat Area
4. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Observed Vegetation Classes | Grand Total | User’s Accuracy | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Agriculture | Conifer | Other Broadleaf | Shrubs | Uttis | ||||
Mapped Vegetation Classes | Agriculture | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 79 |
Conifer | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 84 | |
Other Broadleaf | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 75 | |
Shrubs | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 21 | 76 | |
Uttis | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 31 | 81 | |
Grand Total: | 19 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 29 | 106 | ||
Producer’s Accuracy: | 79 | 89 | 60 | 80 | 86 | |||
Overall accuracy: 80% |
Current Cultivation (2016) | Current | RCP2.6 (2050) | RCP8.5 (2050) | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suitability | Marginal | Moderate | High | Total | Marginal | Moderate | High | Total | Marginal | Moderate | High | Total | ||
Elevation Ranges (m) | 500–1000 | 726 | 2673 | 1415 | 483 | 4571 | 2700 | 667 | 102 | 3469 | 2300 | 513 | 107 | 2920 |
1000–2000 | 17,400 | 16,699 | 21,038 | 12,866 | 50,602 | 15,952 | 22,471 | 13,374 | 51,797 | 15,521 | 23,318 | 11,300 | 50,139 | |
2000–3000 | 4603 | 16,686 | 5325 | 331 | 22,342 | 11,626 | 1075 | 18 | 12,719 | 12,266 | 1051 | 20 | 13,336 | |
Total | 22,729 | 36,058 | 27,778 | 13,679 | 77,515 | 30,278 | 24,213 | 13,494 | 67,985 | 30,087 | 24,882 | 11,426 | 66,395 |
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Maharjan, S.; Qamer, F.M.; Matin, M.; Joshi, G.; Bhuchar, S. Integrating Modelling and Expert Knowledge for Evaluating Current and Future Scenario of Large Cardamom Crop in Eastern Nepal. Agronomy 2019, 9, 481. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9090481
Maharjan S, Qamer FM, Matin M, Joshi G, Bhuchar S. Integrating Modelling and Expert Knowledge for Evaluating Current and Future Scenario of Large Cardamom Crop in Eastern Nepal. Agronomy. 2019; 9(9):481. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9090481
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaharjan, Sajana, Faisal Mueen Qamer, Mir Matin, Govinda Joshi, and Sanjeev Bhuchar. 2019. "Integrating Modelling and Expert Knowledge for Evaluating Current and Future Scenario of Large Cardamom Crop in Eastern Nepal" Agronomy 9, no. 9: 481. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9090481