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Article

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

1
Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA
2
Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA
3
Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling and Observations, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA
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Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Moharem Bek, Alexandria 21522, Egypt
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Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation, Cairo 12685, Egypt
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Fumio Yamazaki, Kenji Nakamura and Giovanni Battista Chirico
Remote Sens. 2021, 13(4), 711; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711
Received: 28 December 2020 / Revised: 8 February 2021 / Accepted: 10 February 2021 / Published: 15 February 2021
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images. View Full-Text
Keywords: hydrology; Nile watershed; soil moisture; Sentinel-1; precipitation; Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam hydrology; Nile watershed; soil moisture; Sentinel-1; precipitation; Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kansara, P.; Li, W.; El-Askary, H.; Lakshmi, V.; Piechota, T.; Struppa, D.; Abdelaty Sayed, M. An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 711. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711

AMA Style

Kansara P, Li W, El-Askary H, Lakshmi V, Piechota T, Struppa D, Abdelaty Sayed M. An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(4):711. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kansara, Prakrut, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Venkataraman Lakshmi, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa, and Mohamed Abdelaty Sayed. 2021. "An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries" Remote Sensing 13, no. 4: 711. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13040711

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