High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Data
2.1. Study Area and Field Data Acquisitions
2.2. The GIPL 2.0 Ground Thermal Model
2.2.1. Model Setting and Boundary Condition
2.2.2. Forcing Datasets and Model Initialization
2.2.3. Subsurface Properties and Model Parameters
2.2.4. Model Calibration and Validation
3. Results
3.1. Present Permafrost Distribution
3.2. Historic and Future Permafrost Development in a Warming Climate
4. Discussion
4.1. Model Uncertainties
4.2. Comparison with Other Observations and Results
4.3. Permafrost Change at the Local Scale
5. Conclusions
- The ecosystem types derived from high resolution satellite image provide a reliable and efficient way to scale up the ground thermal parameters and improve the resolution of the model. The GIPL 2.0 model gives a valid picture of the permafrost thermal distribution at 2.0 m spatial resolution. Present permafrost is discontinuous and occupies about 61.4% of the study region, excluding rivers and lakes. MAGT values generally range from −2.0 °C and 0 °C, but vary with ecosystem types. The modeled ALTs are highly related to the MAGT.
- The model results suggest that the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by 26% since 1986. The mean ALT is modeled to have increased by 0.46 m. According to two climate scenarios, degradation of permafrost is suggested to occur throughout the next 60 years in most regions. A total of 8.5–35% of the area will be involved in widespread permafrost degradation. In the meantime, the average ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Class ID | Surface Type | Soil Texture | Class ID | Vegetation | Soil Texture |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Swamp meadow | Fine sand | 6 | Sparse grassland | Sand with gravel |
2 | Undisturbed alpine meadow | Fine sand | 7 | Bare ground | Stone and gravel |
3 | Degrading alpine meadow | Fine sand | 8 | Water body | -- |
4 | Alpine steppe | Sand with gravel | 9 | Water | -- |
5 | Desert alpine grassland | Sand | 10 | Bare ground | Aeolian sand |
Soil Layer | VWC | UWC | C (106 J m−3) K−1) | K (W m−1 K−1) | Depth (m) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | Ct | Cf | kt | kf | |||
Swamp Meadow | ||||||||
Sand | 0.20 | 0.07 | −0.17 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0–1 |
Clay | 0.18 | 0.12 | −0.15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1–10 |
Rock | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.1 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 3.1 | >10 |
Undisturbed Alpine Meadow | ||||||||
Sand | 0.18 | 0.07 | −0.17 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0–2 |
Clay | 0.17 | 0.12 | −0.15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2–10 |
Bedrock | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.10 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 3.1 | >10 |
Degrading Alpine Meadow | ||||||||
Sand | 0.06 | 0.037 | −0.14 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0–2 |
Clay | 0.12 | 0.12 | −0.15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2–10 |
Rock | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.10 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 3.1 | >10 |
Alpine Steppe | ||||||||
Sand with gravel | 0.12 | 0.037 | −0.14 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0–3 |
Clay | 0.12 | 0.12 | −0.15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3–10 |
Rock | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.1 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 3.1 | >10 |
Desert Grassland | ||||||||
Sand | 0.1 | 0.05 | −0.17 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0–5 |
Clay | 0.12 | 0.12 | −0.15 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 5–10 |
Rock | 0.04 | 0.01 | −0.1 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.7 | 3.1 | >10 |
Site | Depth (m) | R2 | ME | MAE | RMSE | N |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swamp Meadow | 0.3 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 708 |
3.0 | 0.92 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 708 | |
5.0 | 0.93 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 708 | |
10.0 | 0.94 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 708 | |
Undisturbed Alpine Meadow | 0.3 | 0.98 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 708 |
3.0 | 0.98 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 708 | |
5.0 | 0.97 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 708 | |
10.0 | 0.93 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 708 | |
Degrading Alpine Meadow | 0.3 | 0.98 | −0.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 712 |
3.0 | 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 712 | |
5.0 | 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 712 | |
10.0 | 0.73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 712 | |
Alpine Steppe | 0.3 | 0.88 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 708 |
3.0 | 0.90 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 708 | |
5.0 | 0.92 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 708 | |
10.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 708 | |
Desert Grassland | 0.3 | 0.95 | −0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 697 |
3.0 | 0.85 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 697 | |
5.0 | 0.92 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 697 | |
10.0 | 0.92 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 697 |
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Luo, J.; Yin, G.; Niu, F.; Lin, Z.; Liu, M. High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 1294. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111294
Luo J, Yin G, Niu F, Lin Z, Liu M. High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Remote Sensing. 2019; 11(11):1294. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111294
Chicago/Turabian StyleLuo, Jing, Guoan Yin, Fujun Niu, Zhanju Lin, and Minghao Liu. 2019. "High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau" Remote Sensing 11, no. 11: 1294. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111294