Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Sites
2.2. Data and Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Preferred Weather Conditions for Outdoor Water Activities
3.2. Projected Changes in the Season for Outdoor Water Activities
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Temperature-Mean (°C) a) | Temperature-Max (°C) a) | Discomfort Index-Mean b) | Discomfort Index-Max b) | Precipitation (mm) a) | Number of Tropical Nights a) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seoul | 25.57 | 29.18 | 75.11 | 80.62 | 20.70 | 8.8 |
Daegu | 26.76 | 31.30 | 76.47 | 83.26 | 14.50 | 16.7 |
Busan | 25.40 | 28.53 | 75.29 | 80.22 | 18.78 | 14.2 |
City | Outdoor Swimming Pools | Area a) (m2) | Capacity a) (Persons) | Ticket Price b) (KRW) | Number of Visitors b) (Persons) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Mean | Min | |||||
Seoul | Yeouido | 20,000 | 3600 | 5000 | 8795 | 1429 | 14 |
Ttukseom | 21,000 | 3500 | 5000 | 10,534 | 2571 | 13 | |
Mangwon | 23,493 | 3300 | 5000 | 7412 | 1215 | 11 | |
Gwangnaru | 9630 | 1200 | 5000 | 2519 | 530 | 11 | |
Jamsil | 27,945 | 3400 | 5000 | 2353 | 536 | 13 | |
Jamwon | 23,325 | 3000 | 5000 | 1946 | 485 | 12 | |
Daegu | Dooryu | 3625 c) | 5500 | 5000 | 2773 | 894 | 18 |
Busan | Hwamyung | 9966 | 5000 | 4000 | 4980 | 1448 | 40 |
Onchenonchen | 210 c) | 200 | 0 | 1300 | 451 | 50 |
Climate Factors | Seoul a) | Daegu b) | Busan c) |
---|---|---|---|
Gathered data (a) | 1384 | 300 | 217 |
Weekend and national holidays (b) | 376 | 87 | 58 |
First week of August (c) | 104 | 24 | 21 |
June and September (d) | 112 | 32 | 42 |
Used data (a-b-c-d) | 792 | 157 | 96 |
Seoul | Daegu | Busan | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Temperature (°C) (Increased Points) | Precipitation (mm) (Increased Points) | Temperature (°C) (Increased Points) | Precipitation (mm) (Increased Points) | Temperature (°C) (Increased Points) | Precipitation (mm) (Increased Points) | ||||||||
Present | 29.18 | 20.70 | 31.30 | 14.50 | 28.53 | 18.78 | |||||||
RCP 2.6 | 2030s | 30.80 | (1.62) | 13.49 | (−7.21) | 31.09 | (−0.21) | 12.89 | (−1.61) | 30.22 | (1.69) | 12.37 | (−6.41) |
2060s | 30.81 | (1.63) | 11.57 | (−9.13) | 31.20 | (−0.10) | 12.26 | (−2.24) | 30.28 | (1.75) | 12.28 | (−6.50) | |
2090s | 31.43 | (2.25) | 11.63 | (−9.07) | 31.90 | (0.60) | 13.39 | (−1.11) | 31.05 | (2.52) | 11.50 | (−7.28) | |
RCP 4.5 | 2030s | 31.51 | (2.33) | 12.22 | (−8.48) | 31.52 | (0.22) | 15.58 | (1.08) | 30.21 | (1.68) | 18.02 | (−0.76) |
2060s | 30.66 | (1.48) | 15.96 | (−4.74) | 31.31 | (0.01) | 16.70 | (2.20) | 30.32 | (1.79) | 19.50 | (0.72) | |
2090s | 32.56 | (3.38) | 13.59 | (−7.11) | 32.52 | (1.22) | 13.55 | (−0.95) | 31.20 | (2.67) | 14.87 | (−3.91) | |
RCP 6.0 | 2030s | 30.18 | (1.00) | 14.71 | (−5.99) | 30.00 | (−1.30) | 15.40 | (0.90) | 28.80 | (0.27) | 16.09 | (−2.69) |
2060s | 31.00 | (1.82) | 14.83 | (−5.87) | 31.88 | (0.58) | 12.74 | (−1.76) | 30.45 | (1.92) | 14.50 | (−4.28) | |
2090s | 33.26 | (4.08) | 12.57 | (−8.13) | 33.42 | (2.12) | 14.94 | (0.44) | 31.94 | (3.41) | 18.56 | (−0.22) | |
RCP 8.5 | 2030s | 30.62 | (1.44) | 13.52 | (−7.18) | 30.86 | (−0.44) | 13.29 | (−1.21) | 29.75 | (1.22) | 15.52 | (−3.26) |
2060s | 32.64 | (3.46) | 13.66 | (−7.04) | 32.97 | (1.67) | 14.89 | (0.39) | 31.62 | (3.09) | 14.63 | (−4.15) | |
2090s | 34.89 | (5.71) | 14.30 | (−6.40) | 35.13 | (3.83) | 15.97 | (1.47) | 33.16 | (4.63) | 20.50 | (1.72) |
Seoul | |||
Temperature | Discomfort Index | Precipitation | |
Z-score of number of visitors | 0.512 *** | 0.466 *** | −0.338 *** |
Temperature | - | 0.940 *** | −0.098 |
Discomfort index | - | - | 0.056 |
Daegu | |||
Temperature | Discomfort index | Precipitation | |
Z-score of number of visitors | 0.397 *** | 0.384 *** | −0.429 *** |
Temperature | - | 0.942 *** | −0.275 |
Discomfort index | - | - | −0.211 |
Busan | |||
Temperature | Discomfort index | Precipitation | |
Z-score of number of visitors | 0.448 *** | 0.345 *** | −0.271 *** |
Temperature | - | 0.506 *** | −0.300 |
Discomfort index | - | - | 0.173 |
Climate Factors | Model | Seoul | Daegu | Busan |
---|---|---|---|---|
Temperature | Linear | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
Quadratic | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.22 | |
Cubic | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.27 | |
Precipitation | Linear | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
Log | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
Data | Seoul | Daegu | Busan |
---|---|---|---|
Individual data a) | |||
(Preference function) | (R2 = 0.27) | (R2 = 0.19) | (R2 = 0.27) |
(Inflection Points (°C)) | Low = 24.84, High 34.90 | Low = 25.53, High 35.58 | Low = 26.25, High 34.42 |
Average Z-score of number of visitors for each degree of temperature b) | |||
(Preference function) | (R2 = 0.79) | (R2 = 0.36) | (R2 = 0.43) |
(Inflection Points (°C)) | Low = 24.61, High 34.97 | Low = 25.54, High 35.50 | Low = 27.44, High 34.43 |
Data | Seoul | Daegu | Busan |
---|---|---|---|
Individual data a) | |||
(Preference function) | (R2 = 0.11) | (R2 = 0.14) | (R2 = 0.16) |
(Stabilized Point c)) | 23.5 mm | 31.5 mm | 16.5 mm |
Average Z-score of number of visitors for each degree of precipitation b) | |||
(Preference function) | (R2 = 0.42) | (R2 = 0.36) | (R2 = 0.29) |
(Stabilized Point c)) | 36.5 mm | 31.5 mm | 26.5 mm |
Seoul | Daegu | Busan | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Whole Season (a) | Less Desirable Days | Preferred Days (a-b-c) | Whole Season (a) | Less Desirable Days | Preferred Days (a-b-c) | Whole Season (a) | Less Desirable Days | Preferred Days (a-b-c) | |||||
Hot (b) | Rainy (c) | Hot (b) | Rainy (c) | Hot (b) | Rainy (c) | ||||||||
Present | 125 | 1 | 10 | 114 | 144 | 8 | 7 | 129 | 95 | 1 | 10 | 84 | |
RCP 2.6 | 2030s | 136 | 4 | 7 | 125 | 144 | 7 | 9 | 128 | 95 | 5 | 5 | 85 |
(8.80) | (300) | (−30) | (10) | (0) | (−13) | (29) | (−1) | (0.00) | (400) | (−50) | (1) | ||
2060s | 138 | 4 | 6 | 128 | 144 | 6 | 6 | 132 | 102 | 5 | 5 | 92 | |
(10.40) | (300) | (−40) | (12) | (0) | (−25) | (−14) | (2) | (7.37) | (400) | (−50) | (10) | ||
2090s | 139 | 7 | 6 | 126 | 147 | 10 | 8 | 129 | 104 | 7 | 5 | 92 | |
(11.20) | (600) | (−40) | (11) | (2) | (25) | (14) | (0) | (9.47) | (600) | (−50) | (10) | ||
RCP 4.5 | 2030s | 140 | 12 | 5 | 123 | 149 | 13 | 7 | 129 | 105 | 8 | 8 | 89 |
(12.00) | (1100) | (−50) | (8) | (3) | (63) | (0) | (0) | (10.53) | (700) | (−20) | (6) | ||
2060s | 154 | 4 | 8 | 142 | 160 | 11 | 9 | 140 | 110 | 8 | 11 | 91 | |
(23.20) | (300) | (−20) | (25) | (11) | (38) | (29) | (9) | (15.79) | (700) | (10) | (8) | ||
2090s | 161 | 18 | 5 | 138 | 164 | 15 | 5 | 144 | 114 | 8 | 8 | 98 | |
(28.80) | (1700) | (−50) | (21) | (14) | (88) | (−29) | (12) | (20.00) | (700) | (−20) | (17) | ||
RCP 6.0 | 2030s | 135 | 4 | 6 | 125 | 139 | 2 | 8 | 129 | 105 | 1 | 7 | 97 |
(8.00) | (300) | (−40) | (10) | (−3) | (−75) | (14) | (0) | (10.53) | (0) | (−30) | (15) | ||
2060s | 146 | 10 | 6 | 130 | 160 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 115 | 8 | 5 | 102 | |
(16.80) | (900) | (−40) | (14) | (11) | (63) | (−29) | (10) | (21.05) | (700) | (−50) | (21) | ||
2090s | 162 | 24 | 4 | 134 | 170 | 22 | 8 | 140 | 124 | 15 | 7 | 102 | |
(29.60) | (2300) | (−60) | (18) | (18) | (175) | (14) | (9) | (30.53) | (1400) | (−30) | (21) | ||
RCP 8.5 | 2030s | 139 | 5 | 5 | 129 | 156 | 8 | 8 | 140 | 114 | 5 | 8 | 101 |
(11.20) | (400) | (−50) | (13) | (8) | (0) | (14) | (9) | (20.00) | (400) | (−20) | (20) | ||
2060s | 148 | 20 | 6 | 122 | 168 | 20 | 7 | 141 | 128 | 14 | 6 | 108 | |
(18.40) | (1900) | (−40) | (7) | (17) | (150) | (0) | (9) | (34.74) | (1300) | (−40) | (29) | ||
2090s | 173 | 46 | 7 | 120 | 187 | 41 | 10 | 136 | 147 | 30 | 10 | 107 | |
(38.40) | (4500) | (−30) | (5) | (30) | (413) | (43) | (5) | (54.74) | (2900) | (0) | (27) |
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Kim, S.; Park, J.H.; Lee, D.K. Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1535. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091535
Kim S, Park JH, Lee DK. Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities. Sustainability. 2017; 9(9):1535. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091535
Chicago/Turabian StyleKim, Songyi, Jin Han Park, and Dong Kun Lee. 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on the Preferred Season for Outdoor Water Activities" Sustainability 9, no. 9: 1535. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091535