# A Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Evaluate the Sustainability Indicators in the Villagers’ Lives in Iran with Emphasis on Earthquake Hazard: A Case Study

^{1}

^{2}

^{*}

## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

#### Study Area

^{2}, is located at the south of Zanjan province, between 48°35′ S and 36°07′ E (Figure 1). This county is subdivided into four districts: Central district, Afshar district, BizinehRud district and SojasRud district. The Central district, KharaRud County, was selected as the statistical population. This County has got 30 villages four of which (ZarirnGol, Mahmudabad, Ghushekand and Khaleqabad) were assessed asstudied villages. There were several reasons for choosing these villages, the most important being this area’s presence in a seismic zone. The area was also selected because it was the most populous in comparison with other villages. 31.97% of the central district is occupied by and 53.26% of the total population live in the four villages.

## 2. Literature Review

## 3. Materials and Methods

#### Analytical Model Algorithm (ELECTRE)

**Step 1.**Formation of decision matrix; this matrix contains the values that the criteria assume for each alternative considered [25].

**Step 2.**Determining the Normalized decision matrix; normalization translates data measured with various units—e.g., points and percentage—into weighted dimensionless values of different criteria [26,27].

**Step 3.**Determining the weighted normalized decision matrix by formula: V

_{ij}= W

_{j}× R

_{ij}.

**Step 4.**Formation of Concordance index; the concordance index, $\mathrm{C}\left(\mathrm{a},\text{}\mathrm{b}\right)$ is the sum of all the weights for those criteria where the performance score of alternative “a” is at least as that of alternative “b” [28,29,30].

**Step 5.**Formation of Discordance index; the discordance index, $\mathrm{D}\left(\mathrm{a},\text{}\mathrm{b}\right)$ measures the degree to which alternative “a” is worse than alternative “b” [31].

**Step 6.**Concordance Dominance matrix; is calculated by comparing the values of concordance matrix with threshold value $\left(\overline{\mathrm{c}}\right)$.

**Step 7.**Discordance Dominance matrix; in a similar way, the discordance dominance matrix can be calculated with the help of discordance indices and the threshold value $\left(\overline{\mathrm{d}}\right)$ [32]. The matrix takes on values 0 or 1.

**Step 8.**Determining the Aggregate Dominance matrix; is the intersection of concordance dominance matrix and discordance dominance matrix [29]. The matrix takes on values 0 or 1.

## 4. Results and Discussion

#### 4.1. Ranking the Villages of KharaRud Rural District Based on the Sustainability against the Risks of Earthquakes

#### 4.1.1 First Step: Formation of Decision Matrix

_{ij}demonstrates the performance of alternative Ai when it is evaluated in terms of decision criterion C

_{j}[37]. In this research alternatives are villages and criteria are the five ones mentioned and coded (C1 to C5), for example, C2 means the satisfaction rate from physical criteria of villagers against risks of the earthquake (Table 5).

#### 4.1.2. The Second Stage: Normalizing the Decision Matrix

#### 4.1.3. The Third Stage: Formation of Weighted Criteria Matrix

#### 4.1.4. Forth Stage: Formation of Concordance Matrix of Criteria

- W
_{i}−i-th criterion weight index and - ${\mathrm{c}}_{\mathrm{k}}\left(\mathrm{a},\text{}\mathrm{b}\right)$—Concordance index from the point of view of the i-th criterion [43].

#### 4.1.5. Fifth Stage: Formation of the Discordance Matrix of Criteria

#### 4.1.6. Sixth Step: Formation of Concordance Dominance Matrix of Criteria

#### 4.1.7. Seventh Stage: Formation of Discordance Dominance Matrix of Criteria

#### 4.1.8. Eighth Stage: Determine the Aggregate Dominance Matrix

#### 4.1.9. Ninth Stage: Removing the Alternatives with Less Satisfaction and Choose the Best Alternative

## 5. Conclusions

- Due to the fact that the participation and cooperation rate in the level of the villages was high (the desirability of the social stability index), it is recommended that government agencies use this participation and cooperation and gather people in the mosques to teach them emergency training
- Encouraging and providing financial support (bank facilities) to the villagers in order to build or repair homes to minimize the risks of earthquake
- Strict supervision of the public sector on the construction of houses, in order to retrofit rural houses
- Since two villages of Gushekand and Khaleqabad are in an undesirable status in terms of the stability compared to the other two villages, it is suggested to train these villages in terms of placement ,installation of equipment on the walls and in terms of first-aid with training by Red Crescent departments.

## Author Contributions

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**Study area of central district of KharaRud County. (

**a**) Map of Iran; (

**b**) Khodabande County; (

**c**) Central district of KharaRud; (

**d**) The studied villages.

Type of Risk | Conditions for the occurrence | ||
---|---|---|---|

Earthquake | Rainfall | Other | |

Earthquake and its related phenomena | • | ||

Volcano | • | ||

Landslide | • | • | • |

Subsidence caused by water harvesting, oil, … | • | ||

Local subsidence (caused by loss of subterranean cavities and shafts) | • | • | • |

Subsidence caused by dissolution | • | ||

Problematic soils | • | • | |

Non-engineering levee (manual soils) | • | ||

Deep loss | • | • |

No. | City | District | County | Village | Total Population | Number of Households |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | Khodabande | Central | Khara Rud | Zarian Gol | 1343 | 372 |

2 | Khodabande | Central | Khara Rud | Mahmud Abad | 2906 | 782 |

3 | Khodabande | Central | Khara Rud | Gushekand | 549 | 132 |

4 | Khodabande | Central | Khara Rud | Khaleqabad | 951 | 253 |

Index | Cronbach’s Alpha |
---|---|

Social | 0.701 |

Physical | 0.737 |

Operational | 0.750 |

Economic | 0.687 |

Political | 0.664 |

Sustainability Indicators | The Studied Statements |
---|---|

Social index | Participation—social base—belief or non-belief in fatalism to the occurrence of earthquake—the rate of interest to attend training classes—the rate of interest to transfer their experiences to others |

Physical index | Housing conditions (type of material—antiquity of the building, quality of the building, number of floors)—existence of safe neighbourhoods, having necessary facilities |

Political index | Public sector support in connection with the financing, the necessary permits for construction, supervision in construction, issues related to congestion, public awareness through the media, training courses by government and related organs |

Operational index | Individual consciousness, individual skills, individual readiness, the training of children and families by household head, the classes that attended ever for training, help the wounded and injured people in the event of a crisis |

Economic index | Affordability to build or repair and retrofit housing—Affordability to buy essential facilities in times of crisis (having first aid kits, etc.), the financial strength necessary to insure the building |

**Table 5.**The status quo matrix based on the satisfaction rate from sustainability indicators of villagers against risks of the earthquake.

Alternative/Criteria | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Social | Physical | Operational | Economic | Political | ||

A1 | Mahmud Abad | 3.060 | 2.910 | 2.829 | 2.450 | 2.983 |

A2 | Khaleq Abad | 3.177 | 2.841 | 2.114 | 2.331 | 2.761 |

A3 | Gushe Kand | 3.340 | 2.915 | 2.000 | 2.294 | 2.800 |

A4 | Zarian Gol | 3.473 | 2.638 | 3.240 | 2.297 | 2.870 |

Normalized Matrix | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | 0.522 | 0.523 | 0.545 | 0.514 | 0.468 |

A2 | 0.484 | 0.497 | 0.407 | 0.502 | 0.486 |

A3 | 0.490 | 0.489 | 0.385 | 0.515 | 0.511 |

A4 | 0.503 | 0.490 | 0.624 | 0.466 | 0.532 |

Code | Criteria | Weight |
---|---|---|

C1 | Social | 0.051 |

C2 | Physical | 0.035 |

C3 | Operational | 0.879 |

C4 | Economic | 0.016 |

C5 | Political | 0.019 |

Weighted Matrix | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.479 | 0.018 | 0.024 |

A2 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.358 | 0.018 | 0.025 |

A3 | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.339 | 0.018 | 0.026 |

A4 | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.549 | 0.016 | 0.027 |

Concordance Matrix | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | ----- | 0.949 | 0.914 | 0.070 |

A2 | 0.051 | ----- | 0.895 | 0.051 |

A3 | 0.086 | 0.105 | ----- | 0.035 |

A4 | 0.930 | 0.949 | 0.965 | ----- |

Discordance Matrix | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | ----- | 0.007 | 0.015 | 1 |

A2 | 1 | ----- | 0.065 | 1 |

A3 | 1 | 1 | ----- | 1 |

A4 | 0.0242 | 0.006 | 0.008 | ----- |

Concordance Dominance Matrix | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 |

A2 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 |

A3 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 |

A4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |

Discordance Dominance Matrix | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 |

A2 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 |

A3 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 |

A4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |

Aggregate Dominance Matrix | A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 |
---|---|---|---|---|

A1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 |

A2 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 |

A3 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 |

A4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |

The Domination Number Matrix | Alternative | Result |
---|---|---|

3 | A4 | Zariangol |

2 | A1 | Mahmudabad |

1 | A2 | Khaleqabad |

0 | A3 | Gushekand |

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## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Murgante, B.; Salmani, M.; Molaei Qelichi, M.; Hajilo, M.
A Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Evaluate the Sustainability Indicators in the Villagers’ Lives in Iran with Emphasis on Earthquake Hazard: A Case Study. *Sustainability* **2017**, *9*, 1491.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081491

**AMA Style**

Murgante B, Salmani M, Molaei Qelichi M, Hajilo M.
A Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Evaluate the Sustainability Indicators in the Villagers’ Lives in Iran with Emphasis on Earthquake Hazard: A Case Study. *Sustainability*. 2017; 9(8):1491.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081491

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Murgante, Beniamino, Mohamad Salmani, Mohamad Molaei Qelichi, and Mehdi Hajilo.
2017. "A Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Evaluate the Sustainability Indicators in the Villagers’ Lives in Iran with Emphasis on Earthquake Hazard: A Case Study" *Sustainability* 9, no. 8: 1491.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081491