Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples

Del Giudice, Vincenzo; De Paola, Pierfrancesco; Forte, Fabiana; Manganelli, Benedetto

doi:10.3390/su9112138

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Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples

Vincenzo Del Giudice

¹,

Pierfrancesco De Paola

^1,*

Fabiana Forte

² and

Benedetto Manganelli

Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80138 Napoli, Italy

Department of Architecture and Industrial Design, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, 81100 Caserta, Italy

School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, 85100 Potenza, Italy

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2017, 9(11), 2138; https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112138

Received: 15 August 2017 / Revised: 12 November 2017 / Accepted: 15 November 2017 / Published: 21 November 2017

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Estate Economics, Management and Investments)

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Abstract

This paper experiments an artificial neural networks model with Bayesian approach on a small real estate sample. The output distribution has been calculated operating a numerical integration on the weights space with the Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method (MCHMCM). On the same real estate sample, MCHMCM has been compared with a neural networks model (NNs), traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) and the Penalized Spline Semiparametric Method (PSSM). All four methods have been developed for testing the forecasting capacity and reliability of MCHMCM in the real estate field. The Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method has proved to be the best model with an absolute average percentage error of 6.61%. View Full-Text

Keywords: real estate appraisals; hedonic price model; artificial neural networks; Bayesian approach; Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method; multiple regression analysis; Penalized Spline Semiparametric Method

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Del Giudice, V.; De Paola, P.; Forte, F.; Manganelli, B. Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2138. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112138

AMA Style

Del Giudice V, De Paola P, Forte F, Manganelli B. Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples. Sustainability. 2017; 9(11):2138. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112138

Chicago/Turabian Style

Del Giudice, Vincenzo, Pierfrancesco De Paola, Fabiana Forte, and Benedetto Manganelli. 2017. "Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples" Sustainability 9, no. 11: 2138. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112138

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Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples

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