4.1. Evaluation of EF in G20 from 1999 to 2013
As shown in
Figure 1, the total EF of G20 maintains a stable growth trend from 1999 to 2013, increasing from 9.62 billion ha in 1999 to 12.03 billion ha in 2013, and achieving a growth of about 25%.
The six different land types of EF are also shown in
Figure 1. Fossil energy land contributed most to the total EF among the six components, accounting for 33.77%, and followed by forest and pasture land, whose contributions were 25.38% and 23.42% respectively. Arable land ranked fourth with the percentage of 16.9%. The contributions of fisheries and built-up land to total EF were relatively small, and the average proportions were 0.03% and 0.52%, respectively.
Over the study period, the proportions of six land types have changed considerably. The EF of fisheries land was the fastest growing component during 1999–2013, and it increased by 67.75% from 2.6 million ha in 1993 to 4.4 million ha in 2013. The EF of forest land obtained the lowest growth rate of only 2%. The growth rates of pasture, arable, fossil energy, and built-up land were 29.62%, 33.69%, 40.97%, and 53.57% respectively.
The national level of EF is shown in
Table 1. Due to the limited space, only data in some specific years are listed. According to the results in
Table 1, the EF of G20 countries displays two evolving trends during the research period. Firstly, the EF of seven countries (Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, UK, and USA) declined over time, with the biggest fall taking place in Italy. Secondly, the remaining 12 countries presented an upward trend in EF, with China increasing the most.
China and USA were the two countries with the highest EF. China’s EF, with the total growth of 94% from 1999 to 2013, exceeded that of the USA in 2008 and the gap of EF between China and USA extended to 59.25 10 million ha in 2013. India’s EF ranked the third and increased by nearly half from 105.68 10 million ha in 1999 to 153.26 10 million ha in 2013. Compared with these three countries, the EF of the remaining countries were at lower levels. Among all the countries, the EF of Saudi Arabia was the smallest, but its growth rate was the highest, which was 98.31%, from 7.24 10 million ha in 1993 to 14.35 10 million ha in 2013.
4.2. Analysis of the G20’s TFEcE
According to the Formulas (6) and (7) in
Section 3, we calculate the TFEcE of G20, and the results are shown in
Table 2. In general, the average TFEcE of G20 from 1999 to 2013 is at a low level of about 0.54, which urgently needs to be improved. The actual ecological inputs could be reduced by almost 46%, with output unchanged, through ecological efficiency improvement. This indicates that the improvement of ecological efficiency is an effective way to maintain economic growth, and meanwhile, to relieve ecological pressure.
According to the human development index of United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the classification of countries proposed by the World Bank, the developed countries mentioned in this study include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, USA, and UK, and the rest belong to the developing countries.
As
Table 2 presents, TFEcE of the G20 is very imbalanced. There is a big gap between developed countries and developing countries. For the average value, TFEcE of developed countries reached 0.714, double what it is in developing countries, 0.352. For the median value, TFEcE of developed countries reached 0.705, which is 1.97 times that of developing countries, 0.358. For the degree of divergence, the standard deviation of TFEcE in developed countries is 0.031, just a half of that in developing countries, 0.062. According to the gap between developed countries and developing countries in the G20 in terms of their TFEcE, it showed an upward trend with fluctuation, rising from 0.367 in 1999 to 0.399 in 2013. In 2009, the gap reached a maximum, which is 0.439.
In order to further confirm the gap between developed countries and developing countries, Mann-Whitney U rank test is applied to carry out a significance test. We can see from
Table 3, there exists a significant difference between the TFEcE of developed countries and that of developing countries.
In terms of specific countries, three countries—USA, UK, and Japan—found the optimal efficiency during the research period, and they are all developed countries. These three countries are followed by Italy, France, Republic of Korea, and Germany at 0.84, 0.71, 0.67, and 0.66, respectively. The TFEcE of Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Turkey are around the average level of all the countries. South Africa, Indonesia, and Australia gain almost the same TFEcE, fluctuating around 0.39. The country with the lowest TFEcE score is Argentina, and the average score is 0.21 during 1999–2013.
It is worth noting that among those developed countries, TFEcEs of Canada and Australia, respectively 0.386 and 0.275, are relatively lower than other developed countries. TFEcE assessment involves input variables (EF, labor, and capital), as well as an output variable (GDP). The main reason of the lower TFEcEs of the two countries is that their EF inputs are relatively high. Statistics data can be used to illustrate. Compared with France, labor, capital, and GDP values of Australia were 37.5%, 41.7%, and 32.5%, respectively, while the EF value that Australian occupied is just 60.1% of that of France. Compared with France, labor, capital, and GDP values of Canada were respectively 62.2%, 52.3%, and 52.9%, but the EF value that Canada occupied is 153.7% of that of France. EF consists of six different ecological land types. Different resource endowments of Australia and Canada lead to different occupation of ecological land types. The pasture land footprint in Australia (which accounts for 40.5% of the country’s total EF) and the forestland footprint in Canada (which accounts for 57.7% of the country’s total EF) are relatively higher, and which lead to the higher total EF and also the lower TFEcEs of them.
Russia, Brazil, and China, the three most populous developing countries, have relatively low TFEcE scores. Though China’s TFEcE is small, its growth rate is the highest at 19.7% from 0.238 in 1999 to 0.285 in 2013. The TFEcE of China in 1993 was only 0.238, which was lower than that of Argentina, while in 2013 the TFEcE of China was 1.85 times as high as that of Argentina. China’s TFEcE ranked 18th in 1999 and 12th in 2013, which may benefit from the relevant effective measures taken by Chinese government, including the “National Program on Climate Change” first proposed by developing countries in 2006 and the “Energy Conservation Binding Targets” established in 2009.
4.3. Comparison of G20 Countries’ TFEcE and TFEE
The essential difference between TFEE proposed by Hu and Wang [
3] and TFEcE in this paper is whether to incorporate the comprehensive ecological impacts. TFEcE takes not only the energy inputs, but also the water, forest, and arable inputs into account, which evaluates ecology efficiency more comprehensively.
Table 2 and
Table 4 respectively show the TFEcE and TFEE of G20, and
Table 4 also presents the difference between TFEcE and TFEE of G20.
Without considering other ecological impacts, TFEE may overestimate the country’s performance. As
Table 4 shows, during 1999–2013, the average of TFEE of G20 is 0.617, while the average of TFEcE is 0.543. The Mann-Whitney U rank test proves that the difference between TFEE and TFEcE presents a statistical significance with a
p-value less than 0.001 as
Table 5 shows. The comparative result means that consideration of EF as comprehensive ecological inputs has a significant influence on the country’s ecology efficiency.
At the national level,
Table 4 shows the gap between TFEE and TFEcE of G20. The countries can be divided into three groups. The first group includes UK and USA. There is no difference between TFEE and TFEcE for these two countries, because they always stand on the efficient frontier and rank first for both TFEE and TFEcE for each year. The second group includes Japan, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. The TFEE of these countries are lower than their TFEcE. In this group, Saudi Arabia presents the biggest difference between TFEE and TFEcE, which are 0.35 and 0.6 respectively. The main reason may be that Saudi Arabia is an “oil kingdom”, one of the countries that has the largest oil reserves and production. The process of production, exploration, and exploitation of petroleum need to consume much energy, and the relative low price of oil also induces more energy consumption. These factors lead to low TFEE score in Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia’s TFEcE is higher than its TFEE, which indicates that Saudi Arabia has made efforts to improve efficiency of other ecological inputs. The efforts on other ecological impacts made by these countries in the second group would be ignored if we only considered the energy input as the whole ecological inputs. The rest of the countries belong to the third group, whose TFEE is higher than their TFEcE. These countries have paid more attention to energy consumption, with less attention to biological EF (including arable lands, pasture lands, forest lands, and fisheries lands). Taking China as an example, the average of TFEE is 0.31, while the TFEcE score is 0.28. This indicates that China has achieved much more progress in energy saving, with less progress in other ecological inputs reduction. For the countries in the last group, they should vigorously promote energy savings and other biological EF reduction at the same time.
4.4. Factors of National TFEcE
TFEcE of all the G20 countries every year lies always between zero and unity, thus it is a limited dependent variable. In order to distinguish the influential factors of national TFEcE, we follow the method of Li and Hu [
23] and employ the truncated regression model based on the truncated characteristics of TFEcE data. Truncated regression models arise in many applications of statistics, cases where observation values in the outcome variable are below or above certain thresholds are systematically excluded from the sample.
Three factors are investigated in this paper. R&D represents the ratio of research and development expenditure to GDP. Tra is on behalf of the foreign dependence degree, which is the ratio of total exports and imports to GDP. Ind refers to the ratio of the secondary industry to GDP. All the data are obtained from the World Bank (World Development Indicators). Due to data limitations, the reduced sample data set from 2003–2013 is employed in this section. Saudi Arabia is excluded due to data missing in this section.
The truncated regression model is set as:
where TFEcE
o,t refers to the TFEcE in the
oth country and the
tth year;
β0 is the constant term;
β1,
β2, and
β3, are the parameters of the independent variables, respectively; and
εo,t is the error term.
From the above descriptive statistics analysis and significance test in
Section 4.2, we can find that there is significance difference in TFEcE between developed countries and developing countries, while an analysis on all the G20 countries of Formula (10) may cover it up. Therefore,
Table 6 respectively analyzes the factors that influence TFEcE of the whole G20 countries, G20 developed countries and G20 developing countries. Overall, the result of all the G20 countries is basically consistent with that of G20 developed countries, while different from the one of G20 developing countries. Such results show the necessity of dividing G20 into developing countries and developed countries when analyzing the factors that influence TFEcE.
First, to all the G20 countries, the coefficient of
R&D is significantly positive which indicates that
R&D has a significantly positive impact on TFEcE. It can be seen from
Table 6 that
R&D shows different statistical significance in the truncated regression model. The higher
R&D contributes to the higher TFEcE in developed countries, while it is opposite in developing countries. For the developed countries, the increase of
R&D can boost technical progress, which may enhance the ecological resources usage efficiency and introduce much more ecologically-friendly technology to replace the traditional technology. For the developing countries, the improvement of labor efficiency and capital efficiency would be superior to that of ecological efficiency, because ecological resources are at a relatively low price or even free in developing countries. So, the
R&D is more likely to be distributed to boost the technical progress related to labor or capital efficiency, rather than the improvement of the ecological efficiency. Therefore, we could not find that
R&D promotes the increase of TFEcE in developing countries.
Second, to all the G20 countries, the coefficient of
Ind is significantly negative which indicates that the ratio of the secondary industry to GDP has a significantly negative impact on TFEcE. It can be seen from
Table 6 that the relationship between
Ind and national TFEcE is different in developing countries and developed countries. Although
Ind has led to a decrease in TFEcF in developed countries on average, it has not significantly done so to the developing countries. For developing countries, the ratio of the secondary industry to GDP not only stands for the industry structure but also represents the level of industrial development. Although the countries with a high ratio of secondary industry to GDP may develop a certain energy-intensive industry, the economic level of which are still above-average among the developing countries, which means compared with other developing countries with lower
Ind, they tend to pay more attention to ecological problems. Due to the above-mentioned reasons, the relationship between
Ind and national TFEcE is not significant in the developing countries.
Third, to all the G20 countries, the coefficient of
Tra is not significant which indicates that there is not a significant relation between foreign dependence degree and TFEcE. It can be seen from
Table 6 that
Tra is beneficial to the higher national TFEcE in the developing countries, which is consistent with the internationalization effect. Based on imports and exports, the enterprises in developing countries could be affected by the strict ecological regulations of developed countries, and so their ecological protection awareness and technology level have improved. For the developed countries, we do not find internationalization effect is significantly beneficial to TFEcE. Developed countries are always the exporting countries of green technology and eco-friendly concepts in international trade. Thus, from the perspective of TFEcE, international trade may be not significantly beneficial to developed countries.